Past Mathematical and Computational Finance Seminar

Investors fear that surging volumes in short-term, especially same-day expiry (0DTE), options can destabilize markets by propagating large price jumps. Contrary to the intuition that 0DTE sellers predominantly generate delta-hedging flows that aggravate market moves, high open interest gamma in 0DTEs does not propagate past volatility. 0DTEs and underlying markets have become more integrated over time, leading to a marginally stronger link between the index volatility and 0DTE trading. Nonetheless, intraday 0DTE trading volume shocks do not amplify recent past index returns, inconsistent with the view that 0DTEs market growth intensifies market fragility.

About the speaker
Grigory Vilkov, Professor of Finance at the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management, holds an MBA from the University of Rochester and a Ph.D. from INSEAD, with further qualifications from Goethe University Frankfurt. He has been a professor at both Goethe University and the University of Mannheim.
His academic work focused on improving long-term portfolio strategies by building better expectations of risks, returns, and their dynamics. He is known for practical innovations in finance, such as developing forward-looking betas marketed by IvyDB OptionMetrics, establishing implied skewness and generalized lower bounds as cross-sectional stock characteristics, and creating measures for climate change exposure from earnings calls. His current research encompasses factor dispersions, factor and sector rotation, asset allocation with implied data, and machine learning in options analysis. 

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Predicting real-world phenomena often requires an understanding of their causal relations, not just their statistical associations. I will begin this talk with a brief introduction to the field of causal inference in the classical case of structural causal models over directed acyclic graphs, and causal discovery for static variables. Introducing the temporal dimension results in several interesting complications which are not well handled by the classical framework. The main component of a constraint-based causal discovery procedure is a statistical hypothesis test of conditional independence (CI). We develop such a test for stochastic processes, by leveraging recent advances in signature kernels. Then, we develop constraint-based causal discovery algorithms for acyclic stochastic dynamical systems (allowing for loops) that leverage temporal information to recover the entire directed graph. Assuming faithfulness and a CI oracle, our algorithm is sound and complete. We demonstrate strictly superior performance of our proposed CI test compared to existing approaches on path-space when tested on synthetic data generated from SDEs, and discuss preliminary applications to finance. This talk is based on joint work with Georg Manten, Cecilia Casolo, Søren Wengel Mogensen, Cristopher Salvi and Niki Kilbertus: https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.18477 .

Optimal transport (OT) proves to be a powerful tool for non-parametric calibration: it allows us to take a favourite (non-calibrated) model and project it onto the space of all calibrated (martingale) models. The dual side of the problem leads to an HJB equation and a numerical algorithm to solve the projection. However, in general, this process is costly and leads to spiky vol surfaces. We are interested in special cases where the projection can be obtained semi-analytically. This leads us to the martingale equivalent of the seminal fluid-dynamics interpretation of the optimal transport (OT) problem developed by Benamou and Brenier. Specifically, given marginals, we look for the martingale which is the closest to a given archetypical model. If our archetype is the arithmetic Brownian motion, this gives the stretched Brownian motion (or the Bass martingale), studied previously by Backhoff-Veraguas, Beiglbock, Huesmann and Kallblad (and many others). Here we consider the financially more pertinent case of Black-Scholes (geometric BM) reference and show it can also be solved explicitly. In both cases, fast numerical algorithms are available.

Based on joint works with Julio Backhoff, Benjamin Joseph and Gregoire Leoper.  

This talk reports a work in progress. It will be done on a board.

We build statistical models to describe how market participants choose the direction, price, and volume of orders. Our dataset, which spans sixteen weeks for four shares traded in Euronext Amsterdam, contains all messages sent to the exchange and includes algorithm identification and member identification. We obtain reliable out-of-sample predictions and report the top features that predict direction, price, and volume of orders sent to the exchange. The coefficients from the fitted models are used to cluster trading behaviour and we find that algorithms registered as Liquidity Providers exhibit the widest range of trading behaviour among dealing capacities. In particular, for the most liquid share in our study, we identify three types of behaviour that we call (i) directional trading, (ii) opportunistic trading, and (iii) market making, and we find that around one third of Liquidity Providers behave as market markers.

This is based on work with Álvaro Cartea, Saad Labyad, Leandro Sánchez-Betancourt and Leon van Veldhuijzen. View the working paper here.
 

Attendance is free of charge but requires prior online registration. To register please click here.

Diffusion models, which transform noise into new data instances by reversing a Markov diffusion process, have become a cornerstone in modern generative models. A key component of these models is to learn the score function through score matching. While the practical power of diffusion models has now been widely recognized, the theoretical developments remain far from mature. Notably, it remains unclear whether gradient-based algorithms can learn the score function with a provable accuracy. In this talk, we develop a suite of non-asymptotic theory towards understanding the data generation process of diffusion models and the accuracy of score estimation. Our analysis covers both the optimization and the generalization aspects of the learning procedure, which also builds a novel connection to supervised learning and neural tangent kernels.

This is based on joint work with Yinbin Han and Meisam Razaviyayn (USC).

Causal optimal transport and the related adapted Wasserstein distance have recently been popularized as a more appropriate alternative to the classical Wasserstein distance in the context of stochastic analysis and mathematical finance. In this talk, we establish some interesting consequences of causality for transports on the space of continuous functions between the laws of stochastic differential equations.
 

We first characterize bicausal transport plans and maps between the laws of stochastic differential equations. As an application, we are able to provide necessary and sufficient conditions for bicausal transport plans to be induced by bi-causal maps. Analogous to the classical case, we show that bicausal Monge transports are dense in the set of bicausal couplings between laws of SDEs with unique strong solutions and regular coefficients.

 This is a joint work with Rama Cont.

We introduce a methodology based on Multireference Alignment (MRA) for lead-lag detection in multivariate time series, and demonstrate its applicability in developing trading strategies. Specifically designed for low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) scenarios, our approach estimates denoised latent signals from a set of time series. We also investigate the impact of clustering the time series on the recovery of latent signals. We demonstrate that our lead-lag detection module outperforms commonly employed cross-correlation-based methods. Furthermore, we devise a cross-sectional trading strategy that capitalizes on the lead-lag relationships uncovered by our approach and attains significant economic benefits. Promising backtesting results on daily equity returns illustrate the potential of our method in quantitative finance and suggest avenues for future research.

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Abstract
In the contemporary AI landscape, Large Language Models (LLMs) stand out as game-changers. They redefine not only how we interact with computers via natural language but also how we identify and extract insights from vast, complex datasets. This presentation delves into the nuances of training and customizing LLMs, with a focus on their applications to quantitative finance.


About the speaker
Ioana Boier is a senior principal solutions architect at Nvidia. Her background is in Quantitative Finance and Computer Science. Prior to joining Nvidia, she was the Head of Quantitative Portfolio Solutions at Alphadyne Asset Management, and led research teams at Citadel LLC, BNP Paribas, and IBM T.J. Watson Research. She has a Ph.D. in Computer Science from Purdue University and is the author of over 30 peer-reviewed publications, 15 patents, and the winner of several awards for applied research delivered into products.
View her LinkedIn page

Frontiers in Quantitative Finance is brought to you by the Oxford Mathematical and Computational Finance Group and sponsored by CitiGroup and Mosaic SmartData.
 

In this talk, we investigate distributionally robust optimization (DRO) in a dynamic context. We consider a general penalized DRO problem with a causal transport-type penalization. Such a penalization naturally captures the information flow generated by the models. We derive a tractable dynamic duality formula under a measure theoretic framework. Furthermore, we apply the duality to distributionally robust average value-at-risk and stochastic control problems.

We propose a novel framework for exploring weak and $L_2$ generalization errors of algorithms through the lens of differential calculus on the space of probability measures. Specifically, we consider the KL-regularized empirical risk minimization problem and establish generic conditions under which the generalization error convergence rate, when training on a sample of size $n$ , is $\matcal{O}(1/n)$. In the context of supervised learning with a one-hidden layer neural network in the mean-field regime, these conditions are reflected in suitable integrability and regularity assumptions on the loss and activation functions.

Popular automated market makers (AMMs) use constant function markets (CFMs) to clear the demand and supply in the pool of liquidity. A key drawback in the implementation of CFMs is that liquidity providers (LPs) are currently providing liquidity at a loss, on average. In this paper, we propose two new designs for decentralised trading venues, the arithmetic liquidity pool (ALP) and the geometric liquidity pool (GLP). In both pools, LPs choose impact functions that determine how liquidity taking orders impact the marginal exchange rate of the pool, and set the price of liquidity in the form of quotes around the marginal rate. The impact functions and the quotes determine the dynamics of the marginal rate and the price of liquidity. We show that CFMs are a subset of ALP; specifically, given a trading function of a CFM, there are impact functions and  quotes in the ALP that replicate the marginal rate dynamics and the execution costs in the CFM. For the ALP and GLP, we propose an optimal liquidity provision strategy where the price of liquidity maximises the LP's expected profit and the strategy depends on the LP's (i) tolerance to inventory risk and (ii) views on the demand for liquidity. Our strategies admit closed-form solutions and are computationally efficient.  We show that the price of liquidity in CFMs is suboptimal in the ALP. Also, we give conditions on the impact functions and the liquidity provision strategy to prevent arbitrages from rountrip trades. Finally, we use transaction data from Binance and Uniswap v3 to show that liquidity provision is not a loss-leading activity in the ALP.

This seminar is part of our Frontiers in Quantitative Finance. Attendance is free of charge but requires prior online registration.

Abstract
Empirical studies consistently find that the price impact of large trades approximately follows a nonlinear power law. Yet, tractable formulas for the portfolios that trade off predictive trading signals, risk, and trading costs in an optimal manner are only available for quadratic costs corresponding to linear price impact. In this paper, we show that the resulting linear strategies allow to achieve virtually optimal performance also for realistic nonlinear price impact, if the “effective” quadratic cost parameter is chosen appropriately. To wit, for a wide range of risk levels, this leads to performance losses below 2% compared to the numerical Viterbi algorithm of Kolm and Ritter (2014) run at very high accuracy. The effective quadratic cost depends on the portfolio risk, but can be computed without any sophisticated numerics by simply maximizing an explicit scalar function.
Read more on this work here.

We consider an offline learning problem for an agent who first estimates an unknown price impact kernel from a static dataset, and then designs strategies to liquidate a risky asset while creating transient price impact. We propose a novel approach for a nonparametric estimation of the propagator from a dataset containing correlated price trajectories, trading signals and metaorders. We quantify the accuracy of the estimated propagator using a metric which depends explicitly on the dataset. We show that a trader who tries to minimise her execution costs by using a greedy strategy purely based on the estimated propagator will encounter suboptimality due to spurious correlation between the trading strategy and the estimator. By adopting an offline reinforcement learning approach, we introduce a pessimistic loss functional taking the uncertainty of the estimated propagator into account, with an optimiser which eliminates the spurious correlation, and derive an asymptotically optimal bound on the execution costs even without precise information on the true propagator. Numerical experiments are included to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed propagator estimator and the pessimistic trading strategy.

Central clearing counterparty houses (CCPs) play a fundamental role in mitigating the counterparty risk for exchange traded options. CCPs cover for possible losses during the liquidation of a defaulting member's portfolio by collecting initial margins from their members. In this article we analyze the current state of the art in the industry for computing initial margins for options, whose core component is generally based on a VaR or Expected Shortfall risk measure. We derive an approximation formula for the VaR at short horizons in a model-free setting. This innovating formula has promising features and behaves in a much more satisfactory way than the classical Filtered Historical Simulation-based VaR in our numerical experiments. In addition, we consider the neural-SDE model for normalized call prices proposed by [Cohen et al., arXiv:2202.07148, 2022] and obtain a quasi-explicit formula for the VaR and a closed formula for the short term VaR in this model, due to its conditional affine structure.

We propose a method to detect linear and nonlinear lead-lag relationships in stock returns.  Our approach uses pairwise Lévy-area and cross-correlation of returns to rank the assets from leaders to followers. We use the rankings to construct a portfolio that longs or shorts the followers based on the previous returns of the leaders, and the stocks are ranked every time the portfolio is rebalanced. The portfolio also takes an offsetting position on the SPY ETF so that the initial value of the portfolio is zero. Our data spans from 1963 to 2022 and we use an average of over 500 stocks to construct portfolios for each trading day. The annualized returns of our lead-lag portfolios are over  20%, and the returns outperform all lead-lag benchmarks in the literature. There is little overlap between the leaders and the followers we find and those that are reported in previous studies based on market capitalization, volume traded, and intra-industry relationships. Our findings support the slow information diffusion hypothesis; i.e., portfolios rebalanced once a day consistently outperform the bidiurnal, weekly, bi-weekly, tri-weekly, and monthly rebalanced portfolios.

A Path Shadowing Monte-Carlo method provides prediction of future paths given any generative model.

At a given date, it averages future quantities over generated price paths whose past history matches, or “shadows”, the actual (observed) history.

We test our approach using paths generated from a maximum entropy model of financial prices,

based on the recently introduced “Scattering Spectra” which are multi-scale analogues of the standard skewness and kurtosis.

This model promotes diversity of generated paths while reproducing the main statistical properties of financial prices, including stylized facts on volatility roughness.

Our method yields state-of-the-art predictions for future realized volatility. It also allows one to determine conditional option smiles for the S&P500.

These smiles depend only on the distribution of the price process, and are shown to outperform both the current version of the Path Dependent Volatility model and the option market itself.

We propose a novel methodology for modeling and forecasting multivariate realized volatilities using graph neural networks. This approach extends the work of Zhang et al. [2022] (Graph-based methods for forecasting realized covariances) and explicitly incorporates the spillover effects from multi-hop neighbors and nonlinear relationships into the volatility forecasts. Our findings provide strong evidence that the information from multi-hop neighbors does not offer a clear advantage in terms of predictive accuracy. However, modeling the nonlinear spillover effects significantly enhances the forecasting accuracy of realized volatilities over up to one month. Our model is flexible and allows for training with different loss functions, and the results generally suggest that using Quasi-likelihood as the training loss can significantly improve the model performance, compared to the commonly-used mean squared error. A comprehensive series of evaluation tests and alternative model specifications confirm the robustness of our results.

Paper available online: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4375165

We apply machine learning models to forecast intraday realized volatility (RV), by exploiting commonality in intraday volatility via pooling stock data together, and by incorporating a proxy for the market volatility. Neural networks dominate linear regressions and tree-based models in terms of performance, due to their ability to uncover and model complex latent interactions among variables. Our findings remain robust when we apply trained models to new stocks that have not been included in the training set, thus providing new empirical evidence for a universal volatility mechanism among stocks. Finally, we propose a new approach to forecasting one-day-ahead RVs using past intraday RVs as predictors, and highlight interesting time-of-day effects that aid the forecasting mechanism. The results demonstrate that the proposed methodology yields superior out-of-sample forecasts over a strong set of traditional baselines that only rely on past daily RVs.

Nonlinear filtering is a central mathematical tool in understanding how we process information. Unfortunately, the equations involved are often high dimensional, and therefore, in practical applications, approximate filters are often employed in place of the optimal filter. The error introduced by using these approximations is generally poorly understood. In this talk we will see how, in the case where the underlying process is a continuous-time, finite-state Markov Chain, results on the stability of filters can be strengthened to yield bounds for the error between the optimal filter and a general approximate filter.  We will then consider the 'projection filter', a low dimensional approximation of the filtering equation originally due to D. Brigo and collaborators, and show that its error is indeed well-controlled. The talk is based on joint work with Sam Cohen.

Stochastic portfolio theory is a framework to study large equity markets over long time horizons. In such settings investors are often confined to trading in an “open market” setup consisting of only assets with high capitalizations. In this work we relax previously studied notions of open markets and develop a tractable framework for them under mild structural conditions on the market.

Within this framework we also introduce a large parametric class of processes, which we call rank Jacobi processes. They produce a stable capital distribution curve consistent with empirical observations. Moreover, there are explicit expressions for the growth-optimal portfolio, and they are also shown to serve as worst-case models for a robust asymptotic growth problem under model ambiguity.

Time permitting, I will also present an extended class of models and illustrate calibration results to CRSP Equity Data.

This talk is based on joint work with Martin Larsson.

This talk presents a general framework for modelling the dynamics of limit order books, built on the combination of two modelling ingredients: the order flow, modelled as a general spatial point process, and the market clearing, modelled via a deterministic ‘mass transport’ operator acting on distributions of buy and sell orders. At the mathematical level, this corresponds to a natural decomposition of the infinitesimal generator describing the  order book evolution into two operators: the generator of the order flow and the clearing operator. Our model provides a flexible framework for modelling and simulating order book dynamics and studying various scaling limits of discrete order book models. We show that our framework includes previous models as special cases and yields insights into the interplay between order flow and price dynamics. This talk is based on joint work with Rama Cont and Pierre Degond.

The Uniswap v3 ecosystem is built upon liquidity pools, where pairs of tokens are exchanged subject to a fee. We propose a systematic workflow to extract a meaningful but tractable sub-universe out of the current > 6,000 pools. We filter by imposing minimum levels on individual pool features, e.g. liquidity locked and agents’ activity, but also maximising the interconnection between the chosen pools to support broader dynamics. Then, we investigate liquidity consumption behaviour on the most relevant pools for Jan-June 2022. We propose to describe each liquidity taker by a transaction graph, which is a complete graph where nodes are transactions on pools and edges have weights from the time elapsed between pairs of transactions. Each graph is embedded into a vector by our own variant of the NLP rooted graph2vec algorithm. Thus, we are able to investigate the structural equivalence of liquidity takers behaviour and extract seven clusters with interpretable features. Finally, we introduce an ideal crypto law inspired from the ideal gas law of thermodynamics. Our model tests a relationship between variables that govern the mechanisms of each pool, i.e. liquidity provision, consumption, and price variation. If the law is satisfied, we say the pool has high cryptoness and demonstrate that it constitutes a better venue for the activity of market participants. Our metric could be employed by regulators and practitioners for developing pool health monitoring tools and establishing minimum levels of requirements.

We conduct a systematic large-scale analysis of order book-driven predictability in high-frequency returns by leveraging deep learning techniques. First, we introduce a new and robust representation of the order book, the volume representation. Next, we carry out an extensive empirical experiment to address various questions regarding predictability. We investigate if and how far ahead there is predictability, the importance of a robust data representation, the advantages of multi-horizon modeling, and the presence of universal trading patterns. We use model confidence sets, which provide a formalized statistical inference framework particularly well suited to answer these questions. Our findings show that at high frequencies predictability in mid-price returns is not just present, but ubiquitous. The performance of the deep learning models is strongly dependent on the choice of order book representation, and in this respect, the volume representation appears to have multiple practical advantages.

We study the impact of transition scenario uncertainty, and in particular, the uncertainty about future carbon price and electricity demand, on the pace of decarbonization of the electricity industry. To this end, we build a discrete time mean-field game model for the long-term dynamics of the electricity market subject to common random shocks affecting the carbon price and the electricity demand. These shocks depend on a macroeconomic scenario, which is not observed by the agents, but can be partially deduced from the frequency of the shocks. Due to this partial observation feature, the common noise is non-Markovian. We consider two classes of agents: conventional producers and renewable producers. The former choose an optimal moment to exit the market and the latter choose an optimal moment to enter the market by investing into renewable generation. The agents interact through the market price determined by a merit order mechanism with an exogenous stochastic demand. We prove the existence of Nash equilibria in the resulting mean-field game of optimal stopping with common noise, developing a novel linear programming approach for these problems. We illustrate our model by an example inspired by the UK electricity market, and show that scenario uncertainty leads to significant changes in the speed of replacement of conventional generators by renewable production.