The signature of a path has many properties that make it an excellent feature to be used in machine learning. We exploit this properties to analyse a stream of data that arises from a psychiatric study whose objective is to analyse bipolar and borderline personality disorders. We build a machine learning model based on signatures that tries to answer two clinically relevant questions, based on observations of their reported state over a short period of time: is it possible to predict if a person is healthy, has bipolar disorder or has borderline personality disorder? And given a person or borderline personality disorder, it is possible to predict his or her future mood? Signatures proved to be very effective to tackle these two problems.

# Past Stochastic Analysis Seminar

Abstract. As the first step for approaching the uniqueness and blowup properties of the solutions of the stochastic wave equations with multi-plicative noise, we analyze the conditions for the uniqueness and blowup properties of the solution (Xt; Yt) of the equations dXt = Ytdt, dYt = jXtj_dBt, (X0; Y0) = (x0; y0). In particular, we prove that solutions arenonunique if 0 < _ < 1 and (x0; y0) = (0; 0) and unique if 1=2 < _ and (x0; y0) 6= (0; 0). We also show that blowup in _nite time holds if _ > 1 and (x0; y0) 6= (0; 0).

This is a joint work with A. Gomez, J.J. Lee, C. Mueller and M. Salins.

Inverting the signature of a path with ideas from linear algebra with implementations.

We consider a class of nonlinear population models on a two-dimensional lattice which are influenced by a small random potential, and we show that on large temporal and spatial scales the population density is well described by the continuous parabolic Anderson model, a linear but singular stochastic PDE. The proof is based on a discrete formulation of paracontrolled distributions on unbounded lattices which is of independent interest because it can be applied to prove the convergence of a wide range of lattice models. This is joint work with Jörg Martin.

The (kinetic) Langevin equation is an SDE with degenerate noise that describes the motion of a particle in a force field subject to damping and random collisions. It is also closely related to Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods. An important open question is, why in certain cases kinetic Langevin diffusions seem to approach equilibrium faster than overdamped Langevin diffusions. So far, convergence to equilibrium for kinetic Langevin diffusions has almost exclusively been studied by analytic techniques. In this talk, I present a new probabilistic approach that is based on a specific combination of reflection and synchronous coupling of two solutions of the Langevin equation. The approach yields rather precise bounds for convergence to equilibrium at the borderline between the overdamped and the underdamped regime, and it may help to shed some light on the open question mentioned above.

There is a routine for obtaining formulae for derivatives of smooth heat semigroups,and for certain heat semigroups acting on differential forms etc, established some time ago by myself, LeJan, & XueMei Li. Following a description of this in its general form, I will discuss its applicability in some sub-Riemannian situations and to higher order derivatives.

Lyons’ theory of rough paths allows us to solve stochastic differential equations driven by a Gaussian processes X of finite p-variation. The rough integral of the solutions against X again exists. We show that the solution also belong to the domain of the divergence operator of the Malliavin derivative, so that the 'Skorohod integral' of the solution with respect to X can also be defined. The latter operation has some properties in common with the Ito integral, and a natural question is to find a closed-form conversion formula between this rough integral and its Malliavin divergence. This is particularly useful in applications, where often one wants to compute the (conditional) expectation of the rough integral. In the case of Brownian motion our formula reduces to the classical Stratonovich-to-Ito conversion formula. There is an interesting difference between the formulae obtained in the cases 2<=p<3 and 3<=p<4, and we consider the reasons for this difference. We elaborate on the connection with previous work in which the integrand is generally assumed to be the gradient of a smooth function of X_{t}; we show that our formula can recover these results as special cases. This is joint work with Nengli Lim.

Let Q be a uniformly random quadrangulation with simple boundary decorated by a critical (p=3/4) face percolation configuration. We prove that the chordal percolation exploration path on Q between two marked boundary edges converges in the scaling limit to SLE(6) on the Brownian disk (equivalently, a Liouville quantum gravity surface). The topology of convergence is the Gromov-Hausdorff-Prokhorov-uniform topology, the natural analog of the Gromov-Hausdorff topology for curve-decorated metric measure spaces. Our method of proof is robust and, up to certain technical steps, extends to any percolation model on a random planar map which can be explored via peeling. Joint work with E. Gwynne.