Recurrent major mood episodes and subsyndromal mood instability cause substantial disability in patients with bipolar disorder. Early identification of mood episodes enabling timely mood stabilisation is an important clinical goal. The signature method is derived from stochastic analysis (rough paths theory) and has the ability to capture important properties of complex ordered time series data. To explore whether the onset of episodes of mania and depression can be identified using self-reported mood data.

# Past Stochastic Analysis Seminar

In this talk, I am going to report on some on-going research at the interface between Rough Paths Theory and Schramm-Loewner evolutions (SLE). In this project, we try to adapt techniques from Rough Differential Equations to the study of the Loewner Differential Equation. The main ideas concern the restart of the backward Loewner differential equation from the singularity in the upper half plane. I am going to describe some general tools that we developed in the last months that lead to a better understanding of the dynamics in the closed upper half plane under the backward Loewner flow.

Joint work with Prof. Dmitry Belyaev and Prof. Terry Lyons

Abstract: Butcher’s B-series is a fundamental tool in analysis of numerical integration of differential equations. In the recent years algebraic and geometric understanding of B-series has developed dramatically. The interplay between geometry, algebra and computations reveals new mathematical landscapes with remarkable properties.

The shuffle Hopf algebra, which is fundamental in Lyons’s groundbreaking work on rough paths, is based on Lie algebras without additional properties. Pre-Lie algebras and the Connes-Kreimer Hopf algebra are providing algebraic descriptions of the geometry of Euclidean spaces. This is the foundation of B-series and was used elegantly in Gubinelli’s theory of Branched Rough Paths.

Lie-Butcher theory combines Lie series with B-series in a unified algebraic structure based on post-Lie algebras and the MKW Hopf algebra, which is giving algebraic abstractions capturing the fundamental geometrical properties of Lie groups, homogeneous spaces and Klein geometries.

In these talks we will give an introduction to these new algebraic structures. Building upon the works of Lyons, Gubinelli and Hairer-Kelly, we will present a new theory for rough paths on homogeneous spaces built upon the MKW Hopf algebra.

Joint work with: Charles Curry and Dominique Manchon

Abstract: Butcher’s B-series is a fundamental tool in analysis of numerical integration of differential equations. In the recent years algebraic and geometric understanding of B-series has developed dramatically. The interplay between geometry, algebra and computations reveals new mathematical landscapes with remarkable properties.

The shuffle Hopf algebra, which is fundamental in Lyons’s groundbreaking work on rough paths, is based on Lie algebras without additional properties. Pre-Lie algebras and the Connes-Kreimer Hopf algebra are providing algebraic descriptions of the geometry of Euclidean spaces. This is the foundation of B-series and was used elegantly in Gubinelli’s theory of Branched Rough Paths.

Lie-Butcher theory combines Lie series with B-series in a unified algebraic structure based on post-Lie algebras and the MKW Hopf algebra, which is giving algebraic abstractions capturing the fundamental geometrical properties of Lie groups, homogeneous spaces and Klein geometries.

In these talks we will give an introduction to these new algebraic structures. Building upon the works of Lyons, Gubinelli and Hairer-Kelly, we will present a new theory for rough paths on homogeneous spaces built upon the MKW Hopf algebra.

Joint work with: Charles Curry and Dominique Manchon

We consider L^2-approximations of white noise within the framework of regularity structures. Possible applications include support theorems for SPDEs driven by degenerate noises and numerics. Joint work with Ilya Chevyrev, Peter Friz and Tom Klose.

This talk is based on a joint work with Dmitry Beliaev.

We study the volume distribution of nodal domains of families of naturally arising Gaussian random field on generic manifolds, namely random band-limited functions. It is found that in the high energy limit a typical instance obeys a deterministic universal law, independent of the manifold. Some of the basic qualitative properties of this law, such as its support, monotonicity and continuity of the cumulative probability function, are established.

Having made sense of differential equations driven by rough paths, we now have a new set of models available but when it comes to calibrating them to data, the tools are still underdeveloped. I will present some results and discuss some challenges related to building these tools.

Consider the Loewner equation associated to the upper-half plane. This is an equation originated from an extremal problem in complex analysis. Nowadays, it attracts a lot of attention due to its connection to probability. Normally this equation is driven by a real-valued function. In this talk, we will show that the equation still makes sense when being driven by a complex-valued function. We will relate this situation to the classical situation and also to complex dynamics.

In the talk, we discuss how to combine the recurrent neural network with the signature feature set to tackle the supervised learning problem where the input is a data stream. We will apply this method to different datasets, including the synthetic datasets( learning the solution to SDEs ) and empirical datasets(action recognition) and demonstrate the effectiveness of this method.

In this talk, we will revisit the proof of the large deviations principle of Wiener chaoses partially given by Borell, and then by Ledoux in its full form. We show that some heavy-tail phenomena observed in large deviations can be explained by the same mechanism as for the Wiener chaoses, meaning that the deviations are created, in a sense, by translations. More precisely, we prove a general large deviations principle for a certain class of functionals $f_n : \mathbb{R}^n \to \mathcal{X}$, where $\mathcal{X}$ is some metric space, under the probability measure $\nu_{\alpha}^n$, where $\nu_{\alpha} =Z_{\alpha}^{-1}e^{-|x|^{\alpha}}dx$, $\alpha \in (0,2]$, for which the large deviations are due to translations. We retrieve, as an application, the large deviations principles known for the so-called Wigner matrices without Gaussian tails of the empirical spectral measure, the largest eigenvalue, and traces of polynomials. We also apply our large deviations result to the last-passage time which yields a large deviations principle when the weight matrix has law $\mu_{\alpha}^{n^2}$, where $\mu_{\alpha}$ is the probability measure on $\mathbb{R}^+$ with density $2Z_{\alpha}^{-1}e^{-x^{\alpha}}$ when $\alpha \in (0,1)$.