Author
Thompson, R
Thompson, C
Pelerman, O
Gupta, S
Obolski, U
Journal title
Philosophical Transactions B: Biological Sciences
DOI
10.1098/rstb.2018.0274
Issue
1775
Volume
374
Last updated
2024-03-26T07:22:29.75+00:00
Abstract
The high frequency of modern travel has led to concerns about a devastating pandemic since a lethal pathogen strain could spread worldwide quickly. Many historical pandemics have arisen following pathogen evolution to a more virulent form. However, some pathogen strains invoke immune responses that provide partial cross-immunity against infection with related strains. Here, we consider a mathematical model of successive outbreaks of two strains—a low virulence (LV) strain outbreak followed by a high virulence (HV) strain outbreak. Under these circumstances, we investigate the impacts of varying travel rates and cross-immunity on the probability that a major epidemic of the HV strain occurs, and the size of that outbreak. Frequent travel between subpopulations can lead to widespread immunity to the HV strain, driven by exposure to the LV strain. As a result, major epidemics of the HV strain are less likely, and can potentially be smaller, with more connected subpopulations. Cross-immunity may be a factor contributing to the absence of a global pandemic as severe as the 1918 influenza pandemic in the century since.
Symplectic ID
996415
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Publication type
Journal Article
Publication date
06 May 2019
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