Distribution network demand and its uncertainty

This chapter presents some advanced tools for low voltage (LV) network demand simulation. Such methods will be required to help distribution network operators (DNOs) cope with the increased uptake of low carbon technologies and localised sources of generation. This will enable DNOs to manage the current network, simulate the effect of various scenarios and run load flow analysis. In order to implement such analysis requires high resolution smart meter data for the various customers connected to the network. However, only small amounts of individual smart meter data will be available and such data could be expensive. In likelihood, smart meter data is only going to be freely available at the aggregate level. Hence, in general, to implement LV network tools, customer loads will need to be simulated based on the assumption of limited amounts of monitored data. In addition, due to the high volatility of LV electric distribution networks, demand uncertainty must also be captured within a simulation tool. In this chapter, a number of methods are described for simulating demand on low voltage feeders which rely only on relatively small samples of smart meter data and monitoring. Firstly, a method called ‘buddying’ is described for assigning realistic profiles to unmonitored customers by buddying them to a customer who is monitored. Secondly, a number of methods are presented for capturing the uncertainty on the network. Finally the uncertainty models are incorporated into the buddying method and implemented in a load flow analysis tool on a number of real feeders. Both the buddying and the uncertainty estimation are presented for two different cases based on whether LV substation monitoring is present or not. This illustrates the different impacts of monitoring availability on the modelling tools. This chapter demonstrates the presented methods on a large range of real LV feeders.