Ecole Polytechnique (ParisTech)

I will present a mathematical model for the genetic evolution of a population which is divided in discrete colonies along a linear habitat, and for which the population size of each colony is random and constant in time. I will show that, under reasonable assumptions on the distribution of the population sizes, over large spatial and temporal scales, this population can be described by the solution to a stochastic partial differential equation with constant coefficients. These coefficients describe the effective diffusion rate of genes within the population and its effective population density, which are both different from the mean population density and the mean diffusion rate of genes at the microscopic scale. To do this, I will present a duality technique and a new convergence result for coalescing random walks in a random environment.

The martingale optimal transportation problem is motivated by

model-independent bounds for the pricing and hedging exotic options in

financial mathematics.

In the simplest one-period model, the dual formulation of the robust

superhedging cost differs from the standard optimal transport problem by

the presence of a martingale constraint on the set of coupling measures.

The one-dimensional Brenier theorem has a natural extension. However, in

the present martingale version, the optimal coupling measure is

concentrated on a pair of graphs which can be obtained in explicit form.

These explicit extremal probability measures are also characterized as

the unique left and right monotone martingale transference plans, and

induce an optimal solution of the kantorovitch dual, which coincides

with our original robust hedging problem.

By iterating the above construction over n steps, we define a Markov

process whose distribution is optimal for the n-periods martingale

transport problem corresponding to a convenient class of cost functions.

Similarly, the optimal solution of the corresponding robust hedging

problem is deduced in explicit form. Finally, by sending the time step

to zero, this leads to a continuous-time version of the one-dimensional

Brenier theorem in the present martingale context, thus providing a new

remarkable example of Peacock, i.e. Processus Croissant pour l'Ordre

Convexe. Here again, the corresponding robust hedging strategy is

obtained in explicit form.