This talk will describe methods for computing sharp upper bounds on the probability of a random vector falling outside of a convex set, or on the expected value of a convex loss function, for situations in which limited information is available about the probability distribution. Such bounds are of interest across many application areas in control theory, mathematical finance, machine learning and signal processing. If only the first two moments of the distribution are available, then Chebyshev-like worst-case bounds can be computed via solution of a single semidefinite program. However, the results can be very conservative since they are typically achieved by a discrete worst-case distribution. The talk will show that considerable improvement is possible if the probability distribution can be assumed unimodal, in which case less pessimistic Gauss-like bounds can be computed instead. Additionally, both the Chebyshev- and Gauss-like bounds for such problems can be derived as special cases of a bound based on a generalised definition of unmodality.

# Past Mathematical Finance Internal Seminar

Networks are a convenient way to represent systems of interacting entities. Many networks contain "communities" of nodes that are more densely connected to each other than to nodes in the rest of the network.

Most methods for detecting communities are designed for static networks. However, in many applications, entities and/or interactions between entities evolve in time.

We investigate "multilayer modularity maximization", a method for detecting communities in temporal networks. The main difference between this method and most previous methods for detecting communities in temporal networks is that communities identified in one temporal snapshot are not independent of connectivity patterns in other snapshots. We show how the resulting partition reflects a trade-off between static community structure within snapshots and persistence of community structure between snapshots. As a focal example in our numerical experiments, we study time-dependent financial asset correlation networks.

Our study addresses the question of how an arbitrage-free semimartingale model is affected when the knowledge about a random time is added. Precisely, we focus on the No-Unbounded-Profit-with-Bounded-Risk condition, which is also known in the literature as the first kind of no arbitrage. In the general semimartingale setting, we provide a sufficient condition on the random time and price process for which the no arbitrage is preserved under filtration enlargement. Moreover we study the condition on the random time for which the no arbitrage is preserved for any process. This talk is based on a joint work with Tahir Choulli, Jun Deng and Monique Jeanblanc.

We consider a controlled stochastic system in presence of state-constraints. Under the assumption of exponential stabilizability of the system near a target set, we aim to characterize the set of points which can be asymptotically driven by an admissible control to the target with positive probability. We show that this set can be characterized as a level set of the optimal value function of a suitable unconstrained optimal control problem which in turn is the unique viscosity solution of a second order PDE which can thus be interpreted as a generalized Zubov equation.

In this talk we present a new type of Soblev norm defined in the space of functions of continuous paths. Under the Wiener probability measure the corresponding norm is suitable to prove the existence and uniqueness for a large type of system of path dependent quasi-linear parabolic partial differential equations (PPDE). We have establish 1-1 correspondence between this new type of PPDE and the classical backward SDE (BSDE). For fully nonlinear PPDEs, the corresponding Sobolev norm is under a sublinear expectation called G-expectation, in the place of Wiener expectation. The canonical process becomes a new type of nonlinear Brownian motion called G-Brownian motion. A similar 1-1 correspondence has been established. We can then apply the recent results of existence, uniqueness and principle of comparison for BSDE driven by G-Brownian motion to obtain the same result for the PPDE.

We study the problem of maximizing expected utility from terminal wealth in a semi-static market composed of derivative securities, which we assume can be traded only at time zero, and of stocks, which can be

traded continuously in time and are modeled as locally-bounded semi-martingales.

Using a general utility function defined on the positive real line, we first study existence and uniqueness of the solution, and then we consider the dependence of the outputs of the utility maximization problem on the price of the derivatives, investigating not only stability but also differentiability, monotonicity, convexity and limiting properties.

We analyze the portfolio choice problem of investors who maximize rank dependent utility in a single-period complete market. We propose a new

notion of less risk taking: choosing optimal terminal wealth that pays off more in bad states and less in good states of the economy. We prove that investors with a less risk averse preference relation in general choose more risky terminal wealth, receiving a risk premium in return for accepting conditional-zero-mean noise (more risk). Such general comparative static results do not hold for portfolio weights, which we demonstrate with a counter-example in a continuous-time model. This in turn suggests that our notion of less risk taking is more meaningful than the traditional notion based on holding less stocks.

This is a joint work with Xuedong He and Roy Kouwenberg.

I introduce Stochastic Portfolio Theory (SPT), which is an alternative approach to optimal investment, where the investor aims to beat an index instead of optimising a mean-variance or expected utility criterion. Portfolios which achieve this are called relative arbitrages, and simple and implementable types of such trading strategies have been shown to exist in very general classes of continuous semimartingale market models, with unspecified drift and volatility processes but realistic assumptions on the behaviour of stocks which come from empirical observation. I present some of my recent work on this, namely the so-called diversity-weighted portfolio with negative parameter. This portfolio outperforms the market quite significantly, for which I have found both theoretical and empirical evidence.