Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting: Challenges and Opportunities

6 May 2016
10:00
Siddharth Arora
Abstract

Over the years, nonlinear and nonparametric models have attracted a great deal of attention. This is mainly due to the fact that most time series arising from the real-world exhibit nonlinear behavior, whereas nonparametric models, in principle, do not make strong prior assumptions about the true functional form of the underlying data generating process.

 

In this workshop, we will focus on the use of nonlinear and nonparametric modelling approaches for time series forecasting, and discuss the need and implications of accurate forecasts for informed policy and decision-making. Crucially, we will discuss some of the major challenges (and potential solutions) in probabilistic time series forecasting, with emphasis on: (1) Modelling in the presence of regime shifts, (2) Effect of model over-fitting on out-of-sample forecast accuracy, and, (3) Importance of using naïve benchmarks and different performance scores for model comparison. We will discuss the applications of different modelling approaches for: Macroeconomics (US GNP), Energy (electricity consumption recorded via smart meters), and Healthcare (remote detection of disease symptoms).

  • Industrial and Interdisciplinary Workshops