A coalescent dual process in a Moran model with genic selection.

A coalescent dual process for a multi-type Moran model with genic selection is derived using a generator approach. This leads to an expansion of the transition functions in the Moran model and the Wright-Fisher diffusion process limit in terms of the transition functions for the coalescent dual. A graphical representation of the Moran model (in the spirit of Harris) identifies the dual as a strong dual process following typed lines backwards in time. An application is made to the harmonic measure problem of finding the joint probability distribution of the time to the first loss of an allele from the population and the distribution of the surviving alleles at the time of loss. Our dual process mirrors the Ancestral Selection Graph of [Krone, S. M., Neuhauser, C., 1997. Ancestral processes with selection. Theoret. Popul. Biol. 51, 210-237; Neuhauser, C., Krone, S. M., 1997. The genealogy of samples in models with selection. Genetics 145, 519-534], which allows one to reconstruct the genealogy of a random sample from a population subject to genic selection. In our setting, we follow [Stephens, M., Donnelly, P., 2002. Ancestral inference in population genetics models with selection. Aust. N. Z. J. Stat. 45, 395-430] in assuming that the types of individuals in the sample are known. There are also close links to [Fearnhead, P., 2002. The common ancestor at a nonneutral locus. J. Appl. Probab. 39, 38-54]. However, our methods and applications are quite different. This work can also be thought of as extending a dual process construction in a Wright-Fisher diffusion in [Barbour, A.D., Ethier, S.N., Griffiths, R.C., 2000. A transition function expansion for a diffusion model with selection. Ann. Appl. Probab. 10, 123-162]. The application to the harmonic measure problem extends a construction provided in the setting of a neutral diffusion process model in [Ethier, S.N., Griffiths, R.C., 1991. Harmonic measure for random genetic drift. In: Pinsky, M.A. (Ed.), Diffusion Processes and Related Problems in Analysis, vol. 1. In: Progress in Probability Series, vol. 22, Birkhäuser, Boston, pp. 73-81].