A Statistical Model of Urban Retail Structure

20 February 2017
14:15
LOUIS ELLAM
Abstract

One of the challenges of 21st-century science is to model the evolution of complex systems.  One example of practical importance is urban structure, for which the dynamics may be described by a series of non-linear first-order ordinary differential equations.  Whilst this approach provides a reasonable model of urban retail structure, it is somewhat restrictive owing to uncertainties arising in the modelling process.

We address these shortcomings by developing a statistical model of urban retail structure, based on a system of stochastic differential equations.   Our model is ergodic and the invariant distribution encodes our prior knowledge of spatio-temporal interactions.  We proceed by performing inference and prediction in a Bayesian setting, and explore the resulting probability distributions with a position-specific metrolpolis-adjusted Langevin algorithm.

  • Stochastic Analysis Seminar