Global and local mobility as a barometer for COVID-19 dynamics.

Author: 

Linka, K
Goriely, A
Kuhl, E

Publication Date: 

April 2021

Journal: 

Biomechanics and modeling in mechanobiology

Last Updated: 

2021-10-07T12:55:03.423+01:00

Issue: 

2

Volume: 

20

DOI: 

10.1007/s10237-020-01408-2

page: 

651-669

abstract: 

The spreading of infectious diseases including COVID-19 depends on human interactions. In an environment where behavioral patterns and physical contacts are constantly evolving according to new governmental regulations, measuring these interactions is a major challenge. Mobility has emerged as an indicator for human activity and, implicitly, for human interactions. Here, we study the coupling between mobility and COVID-19 dynamics and show that variations in global air traffic and local driving mobility can be used to stratify different disease phases. For ten European countries, our study shows a maximal correlation between driving mobility and disease dynamics with a time lag of [Formula: see text] days. Our findings suggest that trends in local mobility allow us to forecast the outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 for a window of two weeks and adjust local control strategies in real time.

Symplectic id: 

1158415

Submitted to ORA: 

Not Submitted

Publication Type: 

Journal Article