13:00
(based on joint work with Helen Haworth, William Shaw, and Ben Hambly)
The simulation of multi-name credit derivatives raises significant challenges, among others from the perspective of dependence modelling, calibration, and computational complexity. Structural models are based on the evolution of firm values, often modelled by market and idiosyncratic factors, to create a rich correlation structure. In addition to this, we will allow for contagious effects, to account for the important scenarios where the default of a number of companies has a time-decaying impact on the credit quality of others. If any further evidence for the importance of this was needed, the recent developments in the credit markets have furnished it. We will give illustrations for small n-th-to-default baskets, and propose extensions to large basket credit derivatives by exploring the limit for an increasing number of firms