14:15
A modelling framework is introduced in which there is a small agent who is more susceptible to the flow of information in the market as compared to the general market participants. In this framework market participants have access to a stream of noisy information concerning the future returns of the asset, whereas an informative trader has access to an additional information source which is also obscured by further noise, which may be correlated with the market noise. The informative trader utilises the extraneous information source to seek statistical arbitrage opportunities, in exchange with accommodating the additional risk. The information content of the market concerning the value of the impending cash flow is represented by the mutual information of the asset price and the associated cash flow. The worthiness of the additional information source is then measured in terms of the difference of mutual information between market participants and the informative trader. This difference is shown to be strictly nonnegative for all parameter values in the model, when signal-to-noise ratio is known in advance. Trading strategies making use of the additional information are considered. (Talk is based on joint work with M.H.A. Davis (Imperial) & R.L. Friedman (Imperial & Royal Bank of Scotland).