The stability of our Solar System has been debated since Newton devised
the laws of gravitation to explain planetary motion. Newton himself
doubted the long-term stability of the Solar System, and the question
has remained unanswered despite centuries of intense study by
generations of illustrious names such as Laplace, Langrange, Gauss, and
Poincare. Finally, in the 1990s, with the advent of computers fast
enough to accurately integrate the equations of motion of the planets
for billions of years, the question has finally been settled: for the
next 5 billion years, and barring interlopers, the shapes of the
planetary orbits will remain roughly as they are now. This is called
"practical stability": none of the known planets will collide with each
other, fall into the Sun, or be ejected from the Solar System, for the
next 5 billion years.
Although the Solar System is now known to be practically stable, it may
still be "chaotic". This means that we may---or may not---be able
precisely to predict the positions of the planets within their orbits,
for the next 5 billion years. The precise positions of the planets
effects the tilt of each planet's axis, and so can have a measurable
effect on the Earth's climate. Although the inner Solar System is
almost certainly chaotic, for the past 15 years, there has been
some debate about whether the outer Solar System exhibits chaos or not.
In particular, when performing numerical integrations of the orbits of
the outer planets, some astronomers observe chaos, and some do not. This
is particularly disturbing since it is known that inaccurate integration
can inject chaos into a numerical solution whose exact solution is known
to be stable.
In this talk I will demonstrate how I closed that 15-year debate on
chaos in the outer solar system by performing the most carefully justified
high precision integrations of the orbits of the outer planets that has
yet been done. The answer surprised even the astronomical community,
and was published in _Nature Physics_.
I will also show lots of pretty pictures demonstrating the fractal nature
of the boundary between chaos and regularity in the outer Solar System.