Counting nodal curves in linear systems $|L|$ on smooth projective surfaces $S$ is a problem with a long history. The G\"ottsche conjecture, now proved by several people, states that these counts are universal and only depend on $c_1(L)^2$, $c_1(L)\cdot c_1(S)$, $c_1(S)^2$ and $c_2(S)$. We present a quite general definition of reduced Gromov-Witten and stable pair invariants on S. The reduced stable pair theory is entirely computable. Moreover, we prove that certain reduced Gromov-Witten and stable pair invariants with many point insertions coincide and are both equal to the nodal curve counts appearing in the Göttsche conjecture. This can be seen as version of the MNOP conjecture for the canonical bundle $K_S$. This is joint work with R. P. Thomas.
