We describe the compact scaling limits of uniformly random quadrangulations with boundaries on a surface of arbitrary fixed genus. These limits, called Brownian surfaces, are homeomorphic to the surface of the given genus with or without boundaries depending on the scaling regime of the boundary perimeters of the quadrangulation. They are constructed by appropriate gluings of pieces derived from Brownian geometrical objects (the Brownian plane and half-plane). In this talk, I will review their definition and discuss possible alternative constructions. This is based on joint work with Jérémie Bettinelli.

A Path Shadowing Monte-Carlo method provides prediction of future paths given any generative model.

At a given date, it averages future quantities over generated price paths whose past history matches, or “shadows”, the actual (observed) history.

We test our approach using paths generated from a maximum entropy model of financial prices,

based on the recently introduced “Scattering Spectra” which are multi-scale analogues of the standard skewness and kurtosis.

This model promotes diversity of generated paths while reproducing the main statistical properties of financial prices, including stylized facts on volatility roughness.

Our method yields state-of-the-art predictions for future realized volatility. It also allows one to determine conditional option smiles for the S&P500.

These smiles depend only on the distribution of the price process, and are shown to outperform both the current version of the Path Dependent Volatility model and the option market itself.