The State University of New York at Buffalo

A metapopulation model, composed of subpopulations and pairwise connections, is a particle-network framework for epidemic dynamics study. Individuals are well-mixed within each subpopulation and migrate from one subpopulation to another, obeying a given mobility rule. While different mobility rules in metapopulation models have been studied, few efforts have been made to compare the effects of simple (i.e., unbiased) random walks and more complex mobility rules. In this talk, we study susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) dynamics in a metapopulation model, in which individuals obey a second-order parametric random-walk mobility rule called the node2vec. We transform the node2vec mobility rule to a first-order Markov chain whose state space is composed of the directed edges and then derive the epidemic threshold. We find that the epidemic threshold is larger for various networks when individuals avoid frequent backtracking or visiting a neighbor of the previously visited subpopulation than when individuals obey the simple random walk. The amount of change in the epidemic threshold induced by the node2vec mobility is generally not as significant as, but is sometimes comparable with, the one induced by the change in the diffusion rate for individuals.

arXiv links: https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.04904 and https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.08080