Mathematical and Computational Finance Seminar

We consider the reinforcement learning problem of controlling an unknown dynamical system to maximise the long-term average reward along a single trajectory. Most of the literature considers system interactions that occur in discrete time and discrete state-action spaces. Although this standpoint is suitable for games, it is often inadequate for systems in which interactions occur at a high frequency, if not in continuous time, or those whose state spaces are large if not inherently continuous. Perhaps the only exception is the linear quadratic framework for which results exist both in discrete and continuous time. However, its ability to handle continuous states comes with the drawback of a rigid dynamic and reward structure.

        This work aims to overcome these shortcomings by modelling interaction times with a Poisson clock of frequency $\varepsilon^{-1}$ which captures arbitrary time scales from discrete ($\varepsilon=1$) to continuous time ($\varepsilon\downarrow0$). In addition, we consider a generic reward function and model the state dynamics according to a jump process with an arbitrary transition kernel on $\mathbb{R}^d$. We show that the celebrated optimism protocol applies when the sub-tasks (learning and planning) can be performed effectively. We tackle learning by extending the eluder dimension framework and propose an approximate planning method based on a diffusive limit ($\varepsilon\downarrow0$) approximation of the jump process.

        Overall, our algorithm enjoys a regret of order $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T})$ or $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\varepsilon^{1/2} T+\sqrt{T})$ with the approximate planning. As the frequency of interactions blows up, the approximation error $\varepsilon^{1/2} T$ vanishes, showing that $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T})$ is attainable in near-continuous time.

We show the super-hedging duality for multi-action options which generalise American options to a larger space of actions (possibly uncountable) than {stop, continue}. We put ourselves in the framework of Bouchard & Nutz model relying on analytic measurable selection theorem. Finally we consider information delay on the action component of the product space. Information delay is expressed as a possibility to look into the future in the dual formulation. This is a joint work with Ivan Guo, Shidan Liu and Zhou Zhou.

In this seminar we introduce a portfolio optimisation framework, in which the use of rough path signatures (Lyons, 1998) provides a novel method of incorporating path-dependencies in the joint signal-asset dynamics, naturally extending traditional factor models, while keeping the resulting formulas lightweight, tractable and easily interpretable. Specifically, we achieve this by representing a trading strategy as a linear functional applied to the signature of a path (which we refer to as “Signature Trading” or “Sig-Trading”). This allows the modeller to efficiently encode the evolution of past time-series observations into the optimisation problem. In particular, we derive a concise formulation of the dynamic mean-variance criterion alongside an explicit solution in our setting, which naturally incorporates a drawdown control in the optimal strategy over a finite time horizon. Secondly, we draw parallels between classical portfolio stategies and Sig-Trading strategies and explain how the latter leads to a pathwise extension of the classical setting via the “Signature Efficient Frontier”. Finally, we give explicit examples when trading under an exogenous signal as well as examples for momentum and pair-trading strategies, demonstrated both on synthetic and market data. Our framework combines the best of both worlds between classical theory (whose appeal lies in clear and concise formulae) and between modern, flexible data-driven methods (usually represented by ML approaches) that can handle more realistic datasets. The advantage of the added flexibility of the latter is that one can bypass common issues such as the accumulation of heteroskedastic and asymmetric residuals during the optimisation phase. Overall, Sig-Trading combines the flexibility of data-driven methods without compromising on the clarity of the classical theory and our presented results provide a compelling toolbox that yields superior results for a large class of trading strategies.

This is based on works with Blanka Horvath and Magnus Wiese.

A wide variety of solutions have been proposed in order to cope with the deficiencies of Modern Portfolio Theory. The ideal portfolio should optimise the investor’s expected utility. Robustness can be achieved by ensuring that the optimal portfolio does not diverge too much from a predetermined allocation. Information geometry proposes interesting and relatively simple ways to model divergence. These techniques can be applied to the risk budgeting framework in order to extend risk budgeting and to unify various classical approaches in a single, parametric framework. By switching from entropy to divergence functions, the entropy-based techniques that are useful for risk budgeting can be applied to more traditional, constrained portfolio allocation. Using these divergence functions opens new opportunities for portfolio risk managers. This presentation is based on two papers published by the BNP Paribas QIS Lab, `The properties of alpha risk parity’ (2022, Entropy) and `Turning tail risks into tailwinds’ (2020, The Journal of Portfolio Management).