Mathematical and Computational Finance Seminar

In this seminar we introduce a portfolio optimisation framework, in which the use of rough path signatures (Lyons, 1998) provides a novel method of incorporating path-dependencies in the joint signal-asset dynamics, naturally extending traditional factor models, while keeping the resulting formulas lightweight, tractable and easily interpretable. Specifically, we achieve this by representing a trading strategy as a linear functional applied to the signature of a path (which we refer to as “Signature Trading” or “Sig-Trading”). This allows the modeller to efficiently encode the evolution of past time-series observations into the optimisation problem. In particular, we derive a concise formulation of the dynamic mean-variance criterion alongside an explicit solution in our setting, which naturally incorporates a drawdown control in the optimal strategy over a finite time horizon. Secondly, we draw parallels between classical portfolio stategies and Sig-Trading strategies and explain how the latter leads to a pathwise extension of the classical setting via the “Signature Efficient Frontier”. Finally, we give explicit examples when trading under an exogenous signal as well as examples for momentum and pair-trading strategies, demonstrated both on synthetic and market data. Our framework combines the best of both worlds between classical theory (whose appeal lies in clear and concise formulae) and between modern, flexible data-driven methods (usually represented by ML approaches) that can handle more realistic datasets. The advantage of the added flexibility of the latter is that one can bypass common issues such as the accumulation of heteroskedastic and asymmetric residuals during the optimisation phase. Overall, Sig-Trading combines the flexibility of data-driven methods without compromising on the clarity of the classical theory and our presented results provide a compelling toolbox that yields superior results for a large class of trading strategies.

This is based on works with Blanka Horvath and Magnus Wiese.

A wide variety of solutions have been proposed in order to cope with the deficiencies of Modern Portfolio Theory. The ideal portfolio should optimise the investor’s expected utility. Robustness can be achieved by ensuring that the optimal portfolio does not diverge too much from a predetermined allocation. Information geometry proposes interesting and relatively simple ways to model divergence. These techniques can be applied to the risk budgeting framework in order to extend risk budgeting and to unify various classical approaches in a single, parametric framework. By switching from entropy to divergence functions, the entropy-based techniques that are useful for risk budgeting can be applied to more traditional, constrained portfolio allocation. Using these divergence functions opens new opportunities for portfolio risk managers. This presentation is based on two papers published by the BNP Paribas QIS Lab, `The properties of alpha risk parity’ (2022, Entropy) and `Turning tail risks into tailwinds’ (2020, The Journal of Portfolio Management).