King’s College London

Sudden cardiac arrhythmic death remains a major health challenge in Western Society. Recent advances in computational methods and technologies have made clinically-based cardiac modelling a reality. An important current focus is the use of modelling to understand the nature of arrhythmias in the setting of different forms of structural heart disease. However, many challenges remain regarding the best use of these models to inform clinical decision making and guide therapies. In this talk, I will introduce a diverse sample of applications of modelling in this context, ranging from basic science studies which aim to leverage a fundamental mechanistic understanding of different aspects of pathological cardiac function, to direct clinical-application projects which aim to use modelling to immediately inform a clinical therapy. I will also discuss the challenges involved in clinically-driven modelling, and how to both engage, and manage, the expectations of clinicians at the same time, particularly with respect to the potential uses of 'patient-specific' modelling.

Numerous studies of asset returns reveal excess kurtosis as fat tails, often characterized by power law behaviour. A hybrid of arithmetic and geometric Brownian motion is proposed as a model for short-term asset returns, and its equilibrium and dynamical properties explored. Some exact solutions for the time-dependent behaviour are given, and we demonstrate the existence of a stochastic bifurcation between mean- reverting and momentum-dominated markets. The consequences for risk management will be discussed.