Cold start forecasting problems

As one of the largest retailers in the world, Tesco relies on automated forecasting to help with decision making. A common issue with forecasts is that of the cold start problem; that we must make forecasts for new products that have no history to learn from. Lack of historical data becomes a real problem as it prevents us from knowing how products react to events, and if their sales react to the time of year. We might consider using similar products as a way to produce a starting forecast, but how should we define what ‘similar’ means, and how should we evolve this model as we start getting real live data? We’ll present some examples to hopefully start a fruitful discussion.