Computing vertical Vafa-Witten invariants

I'll present a computation in the algebraic approach to Vafa-Witten invariants of projective surfaces, as introduced by Tanaka-Thomas. The invariants are defined by integration over moduli spaces of stable Higgs pairs on surfaces and are formed from contributions of components. The physical notion of S-duality translates to conjectural symmetries between these contributions.  One component, the "vertical" component, is a nested Hilbert scheme on a surface. I'll explain work in preparation with M. Kool and T. Laarakker in which we express invariants of this component in terms of a certain quiver variety, the instanton moduli space of torsion-free framed sheaves on $\mathbb{P}^2$. Using a recent identity of Kuhn-Leigh-Tanaka, we deduce constraints on Vafa-Witten invariants conjectured by Göttsche-Kool-Laarakker. One consequence is a formula for the contribution of the vertical component to refined Vafa-Witten invariants in rank 2.