Incubation period and serial interval of mpox for the 2022 global outbreak compared to historical (pre-2022) estimates

Better understanding changes to the transmission dynamics of mpox requires comparing recent estimates of key epidemiological parameters, the incubation period and serial interval, with historical data. We derived historical and contrasted them with pooled estimates from the 2022 outbreak. Our findings show the pooled mean infection to-onset incubation period for the 2022 outbreak was 8.1 days compared to 8.2 days historically, indicating the incubation periods remained relatively consistent over time, despite a shift in the major mode of transmission. However, the onset-to-onset serial interval was estimated at 8.7 days using 2022 data, compared to 14.2 days using historical data. Although the reason for this shortening of the serial interval is unclear, it may be due to increased public health interventions and/or a shift in the mode of transmission. Recognizing such temporal shifts is essential for informed response strategies, and public health measures remain crucial for controlling mpox and similar future outbreaks.