We pursue robust approach to pricing and hedging in mathematical finance. We consider a continuous time setting in which some underlying assets and options, with continuous paths, are available for dynamic trading and a further set of European options, possibly with varying maturities, is available for static trading. Motivated by the notion of prediction set in Mykland [03], we include in our setup modelling beliefs by allowing to specify a set of paths to be considered, e.g. super-replication of a contingent claim is required only for paths falling in the given set. Our framework thus interpolates between model--independent and model--specific settings and allows to quantify the impact of making assumptions or gaining information. We obtain a general pricing-hedging duality result: the infimum over superhedging prices is equal to supremum over calibrated martingale measures. In presence of non-trivial beliefs, the equality is between limiting values of perturbed problems. In particular, our results include the martingale optimal transport duality of Dolinsky and Soner [13] and extend it to multiple dimensions and multiple maturities.

Pengyu Wei's title: Ranking ForexMaster Players

Abstract:

In this talk I will introduce ForexMaster, a simulated foreign exchange trading platform, and how I rank players on this platform. Different methods are compared. In particular, I use random forest and a carefully chosen feature set, which includes not only traditional performance measures like Sharp ratio, but also estimates from the Plackett-Luce ranking model, which has not been used in the financial modelling yet. I show players selected by this method have satisfactory out-of-sample performance, and the Plackett-Luce model plays an important role.

Alissa Kleinnijenhuis title: Stress Testing the European Banking System: Exposure Risk & Overlapping Portfolio Risk
Abstract:
Current regulatory stress testing, as for example done by the EBA, BoE and the FED, is microprudential, non-systemic. These stress tests do not take into account systemic risk, even though the official aim of the stress test is the "test the resilience of the financial system as a whole, and the individual banks therein, to another crisis".
 Two papers are being developed that look at the interconnections between banks. One paper investigates the systemic risk in the European banking system due to interbank exposures, using EBA data. The other paper, looks at the trade-off between individual and systemic risk with overlapping portfolios. The above two "channels of contagion" for systemic risk can be incorporated in stress tests to include systemic components to the traditional non-systemic stress tests.

In this talk, I will present a family of forward performance processes in
discrete time. These processes are predictable with regards to the market
information. Examples from a binomial setting will be given which include
the time-monotone exponential forward process and the completely monotonic
family.

Following a quick introduction to derivatives markets and the classic theory of valuation, we describe the changes triggered by post 2007 events. We re-discuss the valuation theory assumptions and introduce valuation under counterparty credit risk, collateral posting, initial and variation margins, and funding costs. A number of these aspects had been investigated well before 2007. We explain model dependence induced by credit effects, hybrid features, contagion, payout uncertainty, and nonlinear effects due to replacement closeout at default and possibly asymmetric borrowing and lending rates in the margin interest and in the funding strategy for the hedge of the relevant portfolio. Nonlinearity manifests itself in the valuation equations taking the form of semi-linear PDEs or Backward SDEs. We discuss existence and uniqueness of solutions for these equations. We present an invariance theorem showing that the final valuation equations do not depend on unobservable risk free rates, that become purely instrumental variables. Valuation is thus based only on real market rates and processes. We also present a high level analysis of the consequences of nonlinearities, both from the point of view of methodology and from an operational angle, including deal/entity/aggregation dependent valuation probability measures and the role of banks treasuries. Finally, we hint at how one may connect these developments to interest rate theory under multiple discount curves, thus building a consistent valuation framework encompassing most post-2007 effects.

Damiano Brigo, Joint work with Andrea Pallavicini, Daniele Perini, Marco Francischello. 

We argue that Credit Default Swap (CDS) premia for safe-haven sovereigns, like Germany and the United States, are driven to a large extent by regulatory requirements under which  derivatives dealing banks have an incentive to buy CDS to hedge counterparty credit risk of their counterparties.
We explain the mechanics of the regulatory requirements and develop a model in which derivatives dealers, who have a derivatives exposure with sovereigns, need CDS for capital relief. End users without exposure to the sovereigns sell the CDS and require a positive premium equivalent to the capital requirement. The model's predictions are confirmed using data on several sovereigns.

Joint with OMI