Long-Run Dynamics of the U.S. Patent Classification System
Lafond, F Kim, D (01 Jan 2017)
A new paradigm considering multicellular adhesion, repulsion and attraction represent diverse cellular tile patterns
Carrillo, J Murakawa, H Sato, M Wang, M PLOS Computational Biology volume 21 issue 4 e1011909-e1011909 (21 Apr 2025)
Thu, 07 Mar 2024
16:00
L3

Signature Kernel Conditional Independence Tests in Causal Discovery for Stochastic Processes

Dr Emilio Ferrucci
(Mathematical Institute University of Oxford)
Further Information

Please join us for refreshments outside L3 from 1530.

Abstract

Predicting real-world phenomena often requires an understanding of their causal relations, not just their statistical associations. I will begin this talk with a brief introduction to the field of causal inference in the classical case of structural causal models over directed acyclic graphs, and causal discovery for static variables. Introducing the temporal dimension results in several interesting complications which are not well handled by the classical framework. The main component of a constraint-based causal discovery procedure is a statistical hypothesis test of conditional independence (CI). We develop such a test for stochastic processes, by leveraging recent advances in signature kernels. Then, we develop constraint-based causal discovery algorithms for acyclic stochastic dynamical systems (allowing for loops) that leverage temporal information to recover the entire directed graph. Assuming faithfulness and a CI oracle, our algorithm is sound and complete. We demonstrate strictly superior performance of our proposed CI test compared to existing approaches on path-space when tested on synthetic data generated from SDEs, and discuss preliminary applications to finance. This talk is based on joint work with Georg Manten, Cecilia Casolo, Søren Wengel Mogensen, Cristopher Salvi and Niki Kilbertus: https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.18477 .

Statistical Accuracy of Approximate Filtering Methods
Carrillo, J Hoffmann, F Stuart, A Vaes, U (02 Feb 2024)
Novel approaches for the reliable and efficient numerical evaluation of
the Landau operator
Carrillo, J Thalhammer, M (03 Feb 2024) http://arxiv.org/abs/2402.02247v1
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