In the context of surplus models of insurance risk theory, 
some rather surprising and simple identities are presented. This 
includes an
identity relating level crossing probabilities of continuous-time models 
under (randomized) discrete and continuous observations, as well as
reflection identities relating dividend payments and capital injections. 
Applications as well as extensions to more general underlying processes are
discussed.

 

We focus on the mathematical structure of systemic risk measures as proposed by Chen, Iyengar, and Moallemi (2013). In order to clarify the interplay between local and global risk assessment, we study the local specification of a systemic risk measure by a consistent family of conditional risk measures for smaller subsystems, and we discuss the appearance of phase transitions at the global level. This extends the analysis of spatial risk measures in Föllmer and Klϋppelberg (2015).

CANCELLED

The limit order book is the at the core of every modern, electronic financial market. In this talk, I will present some results pertaining to their statistical properties, mathematical modelling and numerical simulation. Questions such as ergodicity, dependencies, relation betwen time scales... will be addressed and sometimes answered to. Some on-going research projects, with applications to optimal trading and market making, will be evoked.

This seminar is run jointly with OMI.

Throughout the Western world, defined benefit pension plans are disappearing, replaced by defined contribution (DC) plans. Retail investors are thus faced with managing investments over a thirty year accumulation period followed by a twenty year decumulation phase. Holders of DC plans are thus truly long term investors. We consider dynamic mean variance asset allocation strategies for long term investors. We derive the "embedding result" which converts the mean variance objective into a form suitable for dynamic programming using an intuitive approach. We then discuss a semi-Lagrangian technique for numerical solution of the optimal control problem via a Hamilton-Jacob-Bellman PDE. Parameters for the inflation adjusted return of a stock index and a risk free bond are determined by examining 89 years of US data. Extensive synthetic market tests, and resampled backtests of historical data, indicate that the multi-period mean variance strategy achieves approximately the same expected terminal wealth as a constant weight strategy, while reducing the probability of shortfall by a factor of two to three.

In this talk, we will establish existence and uniqueness for a wide class of Markovian systems of backward stochastic differential equations (BSDE) with quadratic nonlinearities. This class is characterized by an abstract structural assumption on the generator, an a-priori local-boundedness property, and a locally-H\"older-continuous terminal condition. We present easily verifiable sufficient conditions for these assumptions and treat several applications, including stochastic equilibria in incomplete financial markets, stochastic differential games, and martingales on Riemannian manifolds. This is a joint work with Gordan Zitkovic.

We provide a representation result of parabolic semi-linear PDEs, with polynomial nonlinearity, by branching diffusion processes. We extend the classical representation for KPP equations, introduced by Skorokhod (1964), Watanabe (1965) and McKean (1975), by allowing for polynomial nonlinearity in the pair (u,Du), where u is the solution of the PDE with space gradient Du. Similar to the previous literature, our result requires a non-explosion condition which restrict to "small maturity" or "small nonlinearity" of the PDE. Our main ingredient is the automatic differentiation technique as in Henry Labordere, Tan and Touzi (2015), based on the Malliavin integration by parts, which allows to account for the nonlinearities in the gradient. As a consequence, the particles of our branching diffusion are marked by the nature of the nonlinearity. This new representation has very important numerical implications as it is suitable for Monte Carlo simulation.

Mining massive amounts of sequentially ordered data and inferring structural properties is nowadays a standard task (in finance, etc). I will present some results that combine and extend ideas from rough paths and machine learning that allow to give a general non-parametric approach with strong theoretical guarantees. Joint works with F. Kiraly and T. Lyons.