Virtual

For the problem of prediction with expert advice in the adversarial setting with geometric stopping, we compute the exact leading order expansion for the long time behavior of the value function using techniques from stochastic analysis and PDEs. Then, we use this expansion to prove that as conjectured in Gravin, Peres and Sivan the comb strategies are indeed asymptotically optimal for the adversary in the case of 4 experts.
 

We provide a detailed, probabilistic interpretation, based on stochastic calculus, for the variational characterization of conservative diffusion as entropic gradient flux. Jordan, Kinderlehrer, and Otto showed in 1998 that, for diffusions of Langevin-Smoluchowski type, the Fokker-Planck probability density flow minimizes the rate of relative entropy dissipation, as measured by the distance traveled in terms of the quadratic Wasserstein metric in the ambient space of configurations. Using a very direct perturbation analysis we obtain novel, stochastic-process versions of such features. These are valid along almost every trajectory of the diffusive motion in both the forward and, most transparently, the backward, directions of time. The original results follow then simply by taking expectations. As a bonus, we obtain the HWI inequality of Otto and Villani relating relative entropy, Fisher information and Wasserstein distance; and from it the celebrated log-Sobolev, Talagrand and Poincare inequalities of functional analysis. (Joint work with W. Schachermayer and B. Tschiderer, from the University of Vienna.)