L2

The most valuable asset that people in a sovereign state can have is good, sustainable governance. Setting up a system of good, sustainable governance is not easy. The big and well-known problem is time inconsistency of optimal policies. A mechanism that has proven valuable in mitigating the time inconsistency problem is rule by law. The too-big-to-fail problem in banking is the result of the time inconsistency problem. In this lecture I will argue there is an alternative financial system that is not subject to the too-big-to-fail problem. The alternative arrangement I propose is a pure transaction banking system. Transaction banks are required to hold 100$\%$ interest bearing reserves and can pay tax-free interest on demand deposits. With this system, there cannot be a bank run as there is no place to run to. Mutual arrangements would finance all business investment, which is not currently the case.

We study lower- and dual upper-bounds for Bermudan options in a MonteCarlo/MC setting and provide four contributions. 1) We introduce a local least-squares MC method, based on maximizing the Bermudan price and which provides a lower-bound, which "also" minimizes (not the dual upper-bound itself, but) the gap between these two bounds; where both bounds are specified recursively. 2) We confirm that this method is near optimal, for both lower- and upper-bounds, by pricing Bermudan max-call options subject to an up-and-out barrier; state-of-the-art methods including Longstaff-Schwartz produce a large gap of 100--200 basis points/bps (Desai et al. (2012)), which we reduce to just 5--15 bps (using the same linear basis of functions). 3) For dual upper-bounds based on continuation values (more biased but less time intensive), it works best to reestimate the continuation value in the continuation region only. And 4) the difference between the Bermudan option Delta and the intrinsic value slope at the exercise boundary gives the sensitivity to suboptimal exercise (up to a 2nd-order Taylor approximation). The up-and-out feature flattens the Bermudan price, lowering the Bermudan Delta well below one when the call-payoff slope is equal to one, which implies that optimal exercise "really" matters.

In this work, we want to construct the solution $(Y,Z,K)$ to the following BSDE

$$\begin{array}{l}

Y_t=\xi+\int_t^Tf(s,Y_s,Z_s)ds-\int_t^TZ_sdB_s+K_T-K_t, \quad 0\le t\le T, \\

{\mathbf E}[l(t, Y_t)]\ge 0, \quad 0\le t\le T,\\

\int_0^T{\mathbf E}[l(t, Y_t)]dK_t=0, \\

\end{array}

$$

where $x\mapsto l(t, x)$ is non-decreasing and the terminal condition $\xi$

is such that ${\mathbf E}[l(T,\xi)]\ge 0$.

This equation is different from the (classical) reflected BSDE. In particular, for a solution $(Y,Z,K)$,

we require that $K$ is deterministic. We will first study the case when $l$ is linear, and then general cases.

We also give some application to mathematical finance. This is a joint work with Philippe Briand and Romuald Elie.

The risk of a financial position is usually summarized by a risk measure.

As this risk measure has to be estimated from historical data, it is important to be able to verify and compare competing estimation procedures. In

statistical decision theory, risk measures for which such verification and comparison is possible, are called elicitable. It is known that quantile based risk

measures such as value-at-risk are elicitable. However, the coherent risk measure expected shortfall is not elicitable. Hence, it is unclear how to perform

forecast verification or comparison. We address the question whether coherent and elicitable risk measures exist (other than minus the expected value).

We show that one positive answer are expectiles, and that they play a special role amongst all elicitable law-invariant coherent risk measures.

We construct and study market models admitting optimal arbitrage. We say that a model admits optimal arbitrage if it is possible, in a zero-interest rate setting, starting with an initial wealth of 1 and using only positive portfolios, to superreplicate a constant c>1. The optimal arbitrage strategy is the strategy for which this constant has the highest possible value. Our definition of optimal arbitrage is similar to the one in Fenrholz and Karatzas (2010), where optimal relative arbitrage with respect to the market portfolio is studied. In this work we present a systematic method to construct market models where the optimal arbitrage strategy exists and is known explicitly. We then develop several new examples of market models with arbitrage, which are based on economic agents' views concerning the impossibility of certain events rather than ad hoc constructions. We also explore the concept of fragility of arbitrage introduced in Guasoni and Rasonyi (2012), and provide new examples of arbitrage models which are not fragile in this sense.

References:

Fernholz, D. and Karatzas, I. (2010). On optimal arbitrage. The Annals of Applied Probability, 20(4):1179–1204.

Guasoni, P. and Rasonyi, M. (2012). Fragility of arbitrage and bubbles in diffusion models. preprint.

There are many financial models used in practice (CIR/Heston, Vasicek,

Stein-Stein, quadratic normal) whose popularity is due, in part, to their

analytically tractable asset pricing. In this talk we will show that it is

possible to generalise these models in various ways while maintaining

tractability. Conversely, we will also characterise the family of models

which admit this type of tractability, in the spirit of the classification

of polynomial term structure models.

An investor trades a safe and several risky assets with linear price impact to maximize expected utility from terminal wealth.

In the limit for small impact costs, we explicitly determine the optimal policy and welfare, in a general Markovian setting allowing for stochastic market,

cost, and preference parameters. These results shed light on the general structure of the problem at hand, and also unveil close connections to

optimal execution problems and to other market frictions such as proportional and fixed transaction costs.

Question: Is it a realistic proposition for a mathematician to use his/her skills to make a living from sports betting? The introduction of betting exchanges have fundamentally changed the potential profitability of gambling, and a professional mathematician's arsenal of numerical and theoretical weapons ought to give them a huge natural advantage over most "punters", so what might be realistically possible and what potential risks are involved? This talk will give some idea of the sort of plan that might be required to realise this ambition, and what might be further required to attain the aim of sustainable gambling profitability.