Thu, 12 Mar 2015
16:00
L4

Implied Volatility of Leveraged ETF Options: Consistency and Scaling​

Tim Siu-Tang Leung
(Colombia University)
Abstract

The growth of the exchange-traded fund (ETF) industry has given rise to the trading of options written on ETFs and their leveraged counterparts (LETFs). Motivated by a number of empirical market observations, we study the relationship between the ETF and LETF implied volatility surfaces under general stochastic volatility models. Analytic approximations for prices and implied volatilities are derived for LETF ​options, along with rigorous error bounds. In these price and IV expressions, we identify their non-trivial dependence on the leverage ratio. Moreover, we introduce a "moneyness scaling" procedure to enhance the comparison of implied volatilities across leverage ratios, and test it with empirical price data.

Thu, 05 Mar 2015
16:00
L4

Measures of Systemic Risk

Stefan Weber
(Leibniz Universität Hannover)
Abstract
Systemic risk refers to the risk that the financial system is susceptible to failures due to the characteristics of the system itself. The tremendous cost of this type of risk requires the design and implementation of tools for the efficient macroprudential regulation of financial institutions. We propose a novel approach to measuring systemic risk.

Key to our construction is a rigorous derivation of systemic risk measures from the structure of the underlying system and the objectives of a financial regulator. The suggested systemic risk measures express systemic risk in terms of capital endowments of the financial firms. Their definition requires two ingredients: first, a random field that assigns to the capital allocations of the entities in the system a relevant stochastic outcome. The second ingredient is an acceptability criterion, i.e. a set of random variables that identifies those outcomes that are acceptable from the point of view of a regulatory authority. Systemic risk is measured by the set of allocations of additional capital that lead to acceptable outcomes. The resulting systemic risk measures are set-valued and can be studied using methods from set-valued convex analysis. At the same time, they can easily be applied to the regulation of financial institutions in practice.
 
We explain the conceptual framework and the definition of systemic risk measures, provide an algorithm for their computation, and illustrate their application in numerical case studies. We apply our methodology to systemic risk aggregation as described in Chen, Iyengar & Moallemi (2013) and to network models as suggested in the seminal paper of Eisenberg & Noe (2001), see also Cifuentes, Shin & Ferrucci (2005), Rogers & Veraart (2013), and Awiszus & Weber (2015). This is joint work with Zachary G. Feinstein and Birgit Rudloff
Thu, 12 Feb 2015
16:00
L4

Discrete time approximation of HJB equations via BSDEs with nonpositive jumps

Idris Kharroubi
(Université Paris Dauphine)
Abstract
We propose a new probabilistic numerical scheme for fully nonlinear equations of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) type associated to stochastic control problems, which is based on the a recent Feynman-Kac representation by means of control randomization and backward stochastic differential equation with nonpositive jumps. We study a discrete time approximation for the minimal solution to this class of BSDE when the time step goes to zero, which provides both an approximation for the value function and for an optimal control in feedback form. We obtained a convergence rate without any ellipticity condition on the controlled diffusion coefficient.
Thu, 29 Jan 2015
16:00
L4

Robust evaluation of risks under model uncertainty

Jocelyne Bion-Nadal
(CMAP ecole polytechnique)
Abstract

Dynamic risk measuring has been developed in recent years in the setting of a filtered probability space (Ω,(Ft)0≤t, P). In this setting the risk at time t is given by a Ft-measurable function defined as an ”ess-sup” of conditional expectations. The property of time consistency has been characterized in this setting. Model uncertainty means that instead of a reference probability easure one considers a whole set of probability measures which is furthermore non dominated. For example one needs to deal with this framework to make a robust evaluation of risks for derivative products when one assumes that the underlying model is a diffusion process with uncertain volatility. In this case every possible law for the underlying model is a probability measure solution to the associated martingale problem and the set of possible laws is non dominated.

In the framework of model uncertainty we face two kinds of problems. First the Q-conditional expectation is defined up to a Q-null set and second the sup of a non-countable family of measurable maps is not measurable. To encompass these problems we develop a new approach [1, 2] based on the “Martingale Problem”.

The martingale problem associated with a diffusion process with continuous coefficients has been introduced and studied by Stroock and Varadhan [4]. It has been extended by Stroock to the case of diffusion processes with Levy generators [3]. We study [1] the martingale problem associated with jump diffusions whose coefficients are path dependent. Under certain conditions on the path dependent coefficients, we prove existence and uniqueness of a probability measure solution to the path dependent martingale problem. Making use of the uniqueness of the solution we prove some ”Feller property”. This allows us to construct a time consistent robust evaluation of risks in the framework of model uncertainty [2].

References

[1] Bion-Nadal J., Martingale problem approach to path dependent diffusion processes with jumps, in preparation.

[2] Bion-Nadal J., Robust evaluation of risks from Martingale problem, in preparation.

[3] Strook D., Diffusion processes asociated with Levy generators, Z. Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie verw. Gebiete 32, pp. 209-244 (1975).

[4] Stroock D. and Varadhan S., Diffusion processes with continuous coefficients, I and II, Communications on Pure and Applied Mathematics, 22, pp 345-400 (1969).

 

Thu, 22 Jan 2015
16:00
L4

A Mean-Field Game Approach to Optimal Execution

Sebastian Jaimungal
(University of Toronto)
Abstract

This paper introduces a mean field game framework for optimal execution with continuous trading. We generalize the classical optimal liquidation problem to a setting where, in addition to the major agent who is liquidating a large portion of shares, there are a number of minor agents (high-frequency traders (HFTs)) who detect and trade along with the liquidator. Cross interaction between the minor and major agents occur through the impact that each trader has on the drift of the fundamental price. As in the classical approach, here, each agent is exposed to both temporary and permanent price impact and they attempt to balance their impact against price uncertainty. In all, this gives rise to a stochastic dynamic game with mean field couplings in the fundamental price. We obtain a set of decentralized strategies using a mean field stochastic control approach and explicitly solve for an epsilon-optimal control up to the solution of a deterministic fixed point problem. As well, we present some numerical results which illustrate how the liquidating agents trading strategy is altered in the presence of the HFTs, and how the HFTs trade to profit from the liquidating agents trading.

[ This is joint work with Mojtaba Nourin, Department of Statistical Sciences, U. Toronto ]

Mon, 02 Feb 2015

17:00 - 18:00
L4

Unique Continuation, Carleman Estimates, and Blow-up for Nonlinear Wave Equations

Arick Shao
(Imperial College London)
Abstract

In this talk, we consider two disparate questions involving wave equations: (1) how singularities of solutions of subconformal focusing nonlinear wave equations form, and (2) when solutions of (linear and nonlinear) wave equations are determined by their data at infinity. In particular, we will show how tools from solving the second problem - a new family of global nonlinear Carleman estimates - can be used to establish some new results regarding the first question. Previous theorems by Merle and Zaag have established both upper and lower bounds on the local H¹-norm near noncharacteristic blow-up points for subconformal focusing NLW. In our main result, we show that this H¹-norm cannot concentrate along past timelike cones emanating from the blow-up point, i.e., that a significant amount of the action must occur near the corresponding past null cones.

These are joint works with Spyros Alexakis.

Mon, 26 Jan 2015

17:00 - 18:00
L4

Stability and minimality for a nonlocal variational problem

Nicola Fusco
(Università di Napoli Frederico II)
Abstract

We discuss the local minimality of certain configurations for a nonlocal isoperimetric problem used to model microphase separation in diblock copolymer melts. We show that critical configurations  with positive second variation are local minimizers of the nonlocal area functional and, in fact, satisfy a quantitative isoperimetric inequality with respect to sets  that are  $L^1$-close.  As an application, we address the global and local minimality of certain lamellar configurations.

Thu, 27 Nov 2014

14:00 - 16:00
L4

Geometric Satake Equivalence

Pavel Safronov
(University of Oxford)
Abstract

Both sides of the geometric Langlands correspondence have natural Hecke
symmetries. I will explain an identification between the Hecke
symmetries on both sides via the geometric Satake equivalence. On the
abelian level it relates the topology of a variety associated to a group
and the representation category of its Langlands dual group.
 

Mon, 19 Jan 2015

17:00 - 18:00
L4

Carleman Estimates and Unique Continuation for Fractional Schroedinger Equations

Angkana Ruland
(University of Oxford)
Abstract
In this talk I present Carleman estimates for fractional Schroedinger
equations and discuss how these imply the strong unique continuation
principle even in the presence of rough potentials. Moreover, I show how
they can be used to derive quantitative unique continuation results in
the setting of compact manifolds. These quantitative estimates can then
be exploited to deduce upper bounds on the Hausdorff dimension of nodal
domains (of eigenfunctions to the investigated Dirichlet-to-Neumann maps).
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