Graph Neural Networks for Forecasting Realized Volatility with Nonlinear Spillover Effects
We propose a novel methodology for modeling and forecasting multivariate realized volatilities using graph neural networks. This approach extends the work of Zhang et al.  (Graph-based methods for forecasting realized covariances) and explicitly incorporates the spillover effects from multi-hop neighbors and nonlinear relationships into the volatility forecasts. Our findings provide strong evidence that the information from multi-hop neighbors does not offer a clear advantage in terms of predictive accuracy. However, modeling the nonlinear spillover effects significantly enhances the forecasting accuracy of realized volatilities over up to one month. Our model is flexible and allows for training with different loss functions, and the results generally suggest that using Quasi-likelihood as the training loss can significantly improve the model performance, compared to the commonly-used mean squared error. A comprehensive series of evaluation tests and alternative model specifications confirm the robustness of our results.
Paper available online: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4375165