The General Aggregation Property and its Application to Regime-Dependent Determinants of Variance, Skew and Jump Risk Premia

15 February 2018
Carol Alexander

Our general theory, which encompasses two different aggregation properties (Neuberger, 2012; Bondarenko, 2014) establishes a wide variety of new, unbiased and efficient risk premia estimators. Empirical results on meticulously-constructed daily, investable, constant-maturity  S&P500 higher-moment premia reveal significant, previously-undocumented, regime-dependent behavior. The variance premium is fully priced by Fama and French (2015) factors during the volatile regime, but has significant negative alpha in stable markets.  Also only during stable periods, a small, positive but significant third-moment premium is not fully priced by the variance and equity premia. There is no evidence for a separate fourth-moment premium.

  • Mathematical and Computational Finance Seminar