TModel-free portfolio theory: a rough path approach

Classical approaches to optimal portfolio selection problems are based 
on probabilistic models for the asset returns or prices. However, by 
now it is well observed that the performance of optimal portfolios are 
highly sensitive to model misspecifications. To account for various 
type of model risk, robust and model-free approaches have gained more 
and more importance in portfolio theory. Based on a rough path 
foundation, we develop a model-free approach to stochastic portfolio 
theory and Cover's universal portfolio. The use of rough path theory 
allows treating significantly more general portfolios in a model-free 
setting, compared to previous model-free approaches. Without the 
assumption of any underlying probabilistic model, we present pathwise 
Master formulae analogously to the classical ones in stochastic 
portfolio theory, describing the growth of wealth processes generated 
by pathwise portfolios relative to the wealth process of the market 
portfolio, and we show that the appropriately scaled asymptotic growth 
rate of Cover's universal portfolio is equal to the one of the best 
retrospectively chosen portfolio. The talk is based on joint work with 
Andrew Allan, Christa Cuchiero and Chong Liu.