In the event of food-borne disease outbreaks, conventional epidemiological approaches to identify the causative food product are time-intensive and often inconclusive. Data-driven tools could help to reduce the number of products under suspicion by efficiently generating food-source hypotheses. We frame the problem of generating hypotheses about the food-source as one of identifying the source network from a set of food supply networks (e.g. vegetables, eggs) that most likely gave rise to the illness outbreak distribution over consumers at the terminal stage of the supply network. We introduce an information-theoretic measure that quantifies the degree to which an outbreak distribution can be explained by a supply network’s structure and allows comparison across networks. The method leverages a previously-developed food-borne contamination diffusion model and probability distribution for the source location in the supply chain, quantifying the amount of information in the probability distribution produced by a particular network-outbreak combination. We illustrate the method using supply network models from Germany and demonstrate its application potential for outbreak investigations through simulated outbreak scenarios and a retrospective analysis of a real-world outbreak.
