Rohit Sahasrabuddhe: Concise network models from path data

Networks provide a powerful language to model and analyse interconnected systems. Their building blocks are  edges, which can  then be combined to form walks and paths, and thus define indirect relations between distant nodes and model flows across the system. In a traditional setting, network models are first-order, in the sense that flow across nodes is made of independent sequences of transitions. However, real-world systems often exhibit higher-order dependencies, requiring more sophisticated models. Here, we propose a variable-order network model that captures memory effects by interpolating between first- and second-order representations. Our method identifies latent modes that explain second-order behaviors, avoiding overfitting through a Bayesian prior. We introduce an interpretable measure to balance model size and description quality, allowing for efficient, scalable processing of large sequence data. We demonstrate that our model captures key memory effects with minimal state nodes, providing new insights beyond traditional first-order models and avoiding the computational costs of existing higher-order models.