We build on the literature on financial contagion using models of cross-holdings of equity participations and debt in different seniority classes, and extend them to include bail-ins and contingent convertible debt instruments, two mechanisms of debt-to-equity conversion. We combine these with recently proposed methods of network valuation under stochastic external assets, allowing for the pricing of debt instruments in each seniority layer and the calculation of default probabilities. We show that there exist well-defined valuations for all financial assets cross-held within the system. The full model constitutes an extension of classic asset pricing models that accounts for cross-holdings of debt securities. Our contribution is to add convertible debt to this framework.

This talk will explain how Lie polynomials underpin the structure of the so-called double copy relationship between gauge and gravity theories (and a network of other theories besides).  ABHY have recently shown that Lie polynomials arise naturally also in the geometry of the space K_n of momentum invariants, Mandelstams, and can be expressed in the space of n-3-forms dual to certain associahedral (n-3)-planes. They also arise in the moduli space M_{0,n} of n points on a Riemann sphere up to Mobius transformations in the n-3-dimensional homology.  The talk goes on to give a natural correspondendence between K_n and the cotangent bundle of M_{0.n} through which the relationships of some of these structures can be expressed.  This in particular gives a natural framework for expressing the CHY and ambitwistor-string formulae for scattering amplitudes of gauge and gravity theories and goes some way to expressing their double copy relations.   This is part of joint work in progress with Hadleigh Frost.

Finitely presented groups are a natural algebraic generalisation of the collection of finite groups. Unlike the finite case there is almost no hope of any kind of classification.

The goal of random groups is therefore to understand the properties of the "typical" finitely presented group. I will present a couple of models for random groups and survey some of the main theorems and open questions in the area, demonstrating surprising correlations between these probabilistic models, geometry and analysis.

I'll give a general introduction to tensor-triangular geometry, the algebraic study of tensor-triangulated categories as they appear in topology, geometry and representation theory. Then I'll discuss an elementary idea, that of a "field" in this theory, and explain what we currently know about them.

This paper studies the spread of losses and defaults in financial networks with two important features: collateral requirements and alternative contract termination rules in bankruptcy. When collateral is committed to a firm’s counterparties, a solvent firm may default if it lacks sufficient liquid assets to meet its payment obligations. Collateral requirements can thus increase defaults and payment shortfalls. Moreover, one firm may benefit from the failure of another if the failure frees collateral committed by the surviving firm, giving it additional resources to make other payments. Contract termination at default may also improve the ability of other firms to meet their obligations. As a consequence of these features, the timing of payments and collateral liquidation must be carefully specified, and establishing the existence of payments that clear the network becomes more complex. Using this framework, we study the consequences of illiquid collateral for the spread of losses through fire sales; we compare networks with and without selective contract termination; and we analyze the impact of alternative bankruptcy stay rules that limit the seizure of collateral at default. Under an upper bound on derivatives leverage, full termination reduces payment shortfalls compared with selective termination.

In this talk, we shall propose a relaxed control regularization with general exploration rewards to design robust feedback controls for multi-dimensional continuous-time stochastic exit time problems. We establish that the regularized control problem admits a H\”{o}lder continuous feedback control, and demonstrate that both the value function and the feedback control of the regularized control problem are Lipschitz stable with respect to parameter perturbations. Moreover, we show that a pre-computed feedback relaxed control has a robust performance in a perturbed system, and derive a first-order sensitivity equation for both the value function and optimal feedback relaxed control. These stability results provide a theoretical justification for recent reinforcement learning heuristics that including an exploration reward in the optimization objective leads to more robust decision making. We finally prove first-order monotone convergence of the value functions for relaxed control problems with vanishing exploration parameters, which subsequently enables us to construct the pure exploitation strategy of the original control problem based on the feedback relaxed controls. This is joint work with Christoph Reisinger (available at https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.03148).
 

We adopt Deep Reinforcement Learning algorithms to design trading strategies for continuous futures contracts. Both discrete and continuous action spaces are considered and volatility scaling is incorporated to create reward functions which scale trade positions based on market volatility. We test our algorithms on the 50 most liquid futures contracts from 2011 to 2019, and investigate how performance varies across different asset classes including commodities, equity indices, fixed income and FX markets. We compare our algorithms against classical time series momentum strategies, and show that our method outperforms such baseline models, delivering positive profits despite heavy transaction costs. The experiments show that the proposed algorithms can follow large market trends without changing positions and can also scale down, or hold, through consolidation periods.
The full-length text is available at https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.10107.