DH 1st floor SR

We present a dynamic bank run model for liquidity risk where a financial institution finances its risky assets by a mixture of short- and long-term debt. The financial institution is exposed to liquidity risk as its short-term creditors have the possibility not to renew their funding at a finite number of rollover dates. Besides, the financial institution can default due to insolvency at any time until maturity. We compute both insolvency and illiquidity default probabilities in this multi-period setting. We show that liquidity risk is increasing in the volatility of the risky assets and in the ratio of the return that can be earned on the outside market over the return for short-term debt promised by the financial institution. Moreover, we study the influence of the capital structure on the illiquidity probability and derive that illiquidity risk is increasing with the ratio of short-term funding.

Given a deterministically time-changed Brownian motion Z starting from 1, whose time-change V (t) satisfies $V (t) > t$ for all $t>=0$, we perform an explicit construction of a process X which is Brownian motion in its own filtration and that hits zero for the first time at V (s), where $s:= inf {t > 0 : Z_t = 0}$. We also provide the semimartingale decomposition of $X >$ under

the filtration jointly generated by X and Z. Our construction relies on a combination of enlargement of filtration and filtering techniques. The resulting process X may be viewed as the analogue of a 3-dimensional Bessel bridge starting from 1 at time 0 and ending at 0 at the random time $V (s)$.

We call this a dynamic Bessel bridge since V(s) is not known in advance. Our study is motivated by insider trading models with default risk.(this is a joint work with Luciano Campi and Umut Cetin)

When managing risk, frequently only imperfect hedging instruments are at hand.

We show how to optimally cross-hedge risk when the spread between the hedging

instrument and the risk is stationary. At the short end, the optimal hedge ratio

is close to the cross-correlation of the log returns, whereas at the long end, it is

optimal to fully hedge the position. For linear risk positions we derive explicit

formulas for the hedge error, and for non-linear positions we show how to obtain

numerically effcient estimates. Finally, we demonstrate that even in cases with no

clear-cut decision concerning the stationarity of the spread it is better to allow for

mean reversion of the spread rather than to neglect it.

The talk is based on joint work with Georgi Dimitroff, Gregor Heyne and Christian Pigorsch.

In this talk we show that there exists a smooth classical solution to the HJB equation for a large class of constrained problems with utility functions that are not necessarily differentiable or strictly concave.

The value function is smooth if admissible controls satisfy an integrability condition or if it is continuous on the closure of its domain.

The key idea is to work on the dual control problem and the dual HJB equation. We construct a smooth, strictly convex solution to the dual HJB equation and show that its conjugate function is a smooth, strictly concave solution to the primal HJB equation satisfying the terminal and boundary conditions

We argue that a natural extension of the well known structural credit risk framework of Black and Cox is to model both the firm's assets and liabilities as correlated geometric Brownian motions. This financially reasonable assumption leads to a unification of equity derivatives (written on the stock price), and credit securities like bonds and credit default swaps (CDS), nesting the Black-Cox credit model with a particular stochastic volatility model for the stock. As we will see, it yields reasonable pricing performance with acceptable computational efficiency. However, it has been well understood how to extend a credit framework like this quite dramatically by the trick of time- changing the Brownian motions. We will find that the resulting two factor time-changed Brownian motion framework can encompass well known equity models such as the variance gamma model, and at the same time reproduce the stylized facts about default stemming from structural models of credit. We will end with some encouraging calibration results for a dataset of equity and credit derivative prices written on Ford Motor Company.

We derive a general methodology to approximate the law of the average of the marginal of diffusion processes. The average is computed w.r.t. a general parameter that is involved in the diffusion dynamics. Our approach is suitable to compute expectations of functions of arithmetic or geometric means. In the context of small SDE coefficients, we establish an expansion, which terms are explicit and easy to compute. We also provide non asymptotic error bounds. Applications to the pricing of basket options, Asian options or commodities options are then presented. This talk is based on a joint work with M. Miri.

Systems with delays frequently appear in engineering. The presence of delays makes system analysis and control design very complicated. In this talk, the standard H-infinity control problem of time-delay systems will be discussed. The emphasis will be on systems having an input or output delay. The problem is solved in the frequency domain via reduction to a one-block problem and then further to an extended Nehari problem using a simple and intuitive method. After solving the extended Nehari problem, the original problem is solved. The solvability of the extended Nehari problem (or the one-block problem) is equivalent to the nonsingularity of a delay-dependent matrix and the solvability conditions of the standard H-infinity control problem with a delay are then formulated in terms of the existence of solutions to two delay-independent algebraic Riccati equations and a delay-dependent nonsingular matrix.

Solving partial differential equations (PDEs) on curved surfaces is

important in many areas of science. The Closest Point Method is a new

technique for computing numerical solutions to PDEs on curves,

surfaces, and more general domains. For example, it can be used to

solve a pattern-formation PDE on the surface of a rabbit.

A benefit of the Closest Point Method is its simplicity: it is easy to

understand and straightforward to implement on a wide variety of PDEs

and surfaces. In this presentation, I will introduce the Closest

Point Method and highlight some of the research in this area. Example

computations (including the in-surface heat equation,

reaction-diffusion on surfaces, level set equations, high-order

interface motion, and Laplace--Beltrami eigenmodes) on a variety of

surfaces will demonstrate the effectiveness of the method.

Voltammetry is a powerful method for interrogating electrochemical systems. A voltage is applied to an electrode and the resulting current response analysed to determine features of the system under investigation, such as concentrations, diffusion coefficients, rate constants and thermodynamic potentials. Here we will focus on ac voltammetry, where the voltage signal consists of a high frequency sine-wave superimposed on a linear ramp. Using multiple scales analysis, we find analytical solutions for the harmonics of the current response and show how they can be used to determine the system parameters. We also include the effects of capacitance due to the double-layer at the electrode surface and show that even in the presence of large capacitance, the harmonics of the current response can still be isolated using the FFT and the Hanning window.

Flows involving immiscible liquids are encountered in a variety of industrial and natural processes. Recent applications in micro- and nano-fluidics have led to a significant scientific effort whose aim (among other aspects) is to enable theoretical predictions of the spatiotemporal dynamics of the interface(s) separating different flowing liquids. In such applications the scale of the system is small, and forces such as surface tension or externally imposed electrostatic forces compete and can, in many cases, surpass those of gravity and inertia. This talk will begin with a brief survey of applications where electrohydrodynamics have been used experimentally in micro-lithography, and experiments will be presented that demonstrate the use of electric fields in producing controlled encapsulated droplet formation in microchannels.

The main thrust of the talk will be theoretical and will mostly focus on the paradigm problem of the dynamics of electrified falling liquid films over topographically structured substrates.

Evolution equations will be developed asymptotically and their solutions will be compared to direct simulations in order to identify their practicality. The equations are rich mathematically and yield novel examples of dissipative evolutionary systems with additional effects (typically these are pseudo-differential operators) due to dispersion and external fields.

The models will be analysed (we have rigorous results concerning global existence of solutions, the existence of dissipative dynamics and an absorbing set, and analyticity), and accurate numerical solutions will be presented to describe the large time dynamics. It is found that electric fields and topography can be used to control the flow.Time permitting, I will present some recent results on transitions between convective to absolute instabilities for film flows over periodic topography.