Oxford-Man Institute

The Ross Recovery Theorem gives sufficient conditions under which the

market’s beliefs

can be recovered from risk-neutral probabilities. His approach places

mild restrictions on the form of the preferences of

the representative investor. We present an alternative approach which

has no restrictions beyond preferring more to less,

Instead, we restrict the form and risk-neutral dynamics of John Long’s

numeraire portfolio. We also replace Ross’ finite state Markov chain

with a diffusion with bounded state space. Finally, we present some

preliminary results for diffusions on unbounded state space.

In particular, our version of Ross recovery allows market beliefs to be

recovered from risk neutral probabilities in the classical Cox

Ingersoll Ross model for the short interest rate.

Let (V, ≥) be a finite, partially ordered set. Say a directed forest on V is a set of directed edges [x,y> with x ≤ y such that no vertex has indegree greater than one.

Thus for a finite measure μ on some partially ordered measurable space D we may define a Poisson random forest by choosing a set of vertices V according to a Poisson point process weighted by the number of directed forests on V, and selecting a directed forest uniformly.

We give a necessary and sufficient condition for such a process to exist and show that the process may be expressed as a multi-type branching process with type space D.

We build on this observation, together with a construction of the simple birth death process due to Kurtz and Rodrigues [2011] to develop a coalescent theory for rapidly expanding populations.

The star-triangle transformation is used to obtain an equivalence extending over a set bond percolation models on isoradial graphs. Amongst the consequences are box-crossing (RSW) inequalities and the universality of alternating arms exponents (assuming they exist) for such models, under some conditions. In particular this implies criticality for these models.

(joint with Geoffrey Grimmett)

(Joint work with P.E. Chaudru de Raynal and F. Delarue)

Several problems in financial mathematics, in particular that of contingent claim pricing, may be casted as decoupled Forward Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (FBSDEs). It is then of a practical interest to find efficient algorithms to solve these equations numerically with a reasonable complexity.

An efficient numerical approach using cubature on Wiener spaces was introduced by Crisan and Manoralakis [1]. The algorithm uses an approximation scheme requiring the calculation of conditional expectations, a task achieved through the cubature kernel approximation. This algorithm features several advantages, notably the fact that it is possible to solve with the same cubature tree several decoupled FBSDEs with different boundary conditions. There is, however, a drawback of this method: an exponential growth of the algorithm's complexity.

In this talk, we introduce a modification on the cubature method based on the recombination method of Litterer and Lyons [2] (as an alternative to Tree Branch Based Algorithm proposed in [1]). The main idea of the method is to modify the nodes and edges of the cubature trees in such a way as to preserve, up to a constant, the order of convergence of the expectation and conditional expectation approximations obtained via the cubature method, while at the same time controlling the complexity growth of the algorithm.

We have obtained estimations on the order of convergence and complexity growth of the algorithm under smoothness assumptions on the coefficients of the FBSDE and uniform ellipticity of the forward equation. We discuss that, just as in the case of the plain cubature method, the order of convergence of the algorithm may be degraded as an effect of solving FBSDEs with rougher boundary conditions. Finally, we illustrate the obtained estimations with some numerical tests.

References

[1] Crisan, D., and K. Manolarakis. “Solving Backward Stochastic Differential Equations Using the Cubature Method. Application to Nonlinear Pricing.” In Progress in Analysis and Its Applications, 389–397. World Sci. Publ., Hackensack, NJ, 2010.

[2] Litterer, C., and T. Lyons. “High Order Recombination and an Application to Cubature on Wiener Space.” The Annals of Applied Probability 22, no. 4 (August 2012): 1301–1327. doi:10.1214/11-AAP786.

Abstract: Burgers equation is a quasilinear partial differential equation (PDE), proposed in 1930's to model the evolution of turbulent fluid motion, which can be linearized to the heat equation via the celebrated Cole-Hopf transformation. In the first part of the talk, we study in detail general versions of stochastic Burgers equation with random coefficients, in both forward and backward sense. Concerning the former, the Cole-Hopf transformation still applies and we reduce a forward stochastic Burgers equation to a forward stochastic heat equation that can be treated in a “pathwise" manner. In case of deterministic coefficients, we obtain a probabilistic representation of the Cole-Hopf transformation by associating the backward Burgers equation with a system of forward-backward stochastic differential equations (FBSDEs). Returning to random coefficients, we exploit this representation in order to establish a stochastic version of the Cole-Hopf transformation. This generalized transformation allows us to find solutions to a backward stochastic Burgers equation through a backward stochastic heat equation, subject to additional constraints that reflect the presence of randomness in the coefficients. In both settings, forward and backward, stochastic Feynman-Kac formulae are derived for the solutions of the respective stochastic Burgers equations, as well. Finally, an application that illustrates the obtained results is presented to a pricing/hedging problem arising from mathematical finance.

In the second part of the talk, we study a class of stochastic saddlepoint systems, represented by fully coupled FBSDEs with infinite horizon, that gives rise to a continuous time rational expectations / consol rate model with random coefficients. Under standard Lipschitz and monotonicity conditions, and by means of the contraction mapping principle, we establish existence, uniqueness and dependence on a parameter of adapted solutions. Making further the connection with quasilinear backward stochastic PDEs (BSPDEs), we are led to the notion of stochastic viscosity solutions. A stochastic maximum principle for the optimal control problem of a large investor is also provided as an application to this framework.

This is joint work with N. Frangos, X.- I. Kartala and A. N. Yannacopoulos*

The standard Taylor series approach to the higher-order approximation of vector SDEs requires simulation of iterated stochastic integrals, which is difficult. The talk will describe an approach using methods from optimal transport theory which avoid this difficulty in the case of non-degenerate diffusions, for which one can attain arbitrarily high order pathwise approximation in the Vaserstein 2-metric, using easily generated random variables.

If one starts with a uniformly ergodic Markov chain on countable states, what sort of perturbation can one make to the transition rates and still retain uniform ergodicity? In this talk, we will consider a class of perturbations, that can be simply described, where a uniform estimate on convergence to an ergodic distribution can be obtained. We shall see how this is related to Ergodic BSDEs in this setting and outline some novel applications of this approach.

I will give a new proof for the famous criteria by Novikov and Kazamaki, which provide sufficient conditions for the martingale property of a nonnegative local martingale. The proof is based on an extension theorem for probability measures that can be considered as a generalization of a Girsanov-type change of measure.

In the second part of my talk I will illustrate how a generalized Girsanov formula can be used to compute the distribution of the explosion time of a weak solution to a stochastic differential equation

Abstract: A central question in the theory of random walks on groups is how symmetries of the underlying space gives rise to structure and rigidity of the random walks. For example, for nilpotent groups, it is known that random walks have diffusive behavior, namely that the rate of escape, defined as the expected distance of the walk from the identity satisfies E|Xn|~=n^{1/2}. On nonamenable groups, on the other hand we have E|Xn| ~= n. (~= meaning upto (multiplicative) constants )

In this work, for every 3/4 <= \beta< 1 we construct a finitely generated group so that the expected distance of the simple random walk from its starting point after n steps is n^\beta (up to constants). This answers a question of Vershik, Naor and Peres. In other examples, the speed exponent can fluctuate between any two values in this interval.

Previous examples were only of exponents of the form 1-1/2^k or 1 , and were based on lamplighter (wreath product) constructions.(Other than the standard beta=1/2 and beta=1 known for a wide variety of groups) In this lecture we will describe how a variation of the lamplighter construction, namely the permutational wreath product, can be used to get precise bounds on the rate of escape in terms of return probabilities of the random walk on some Schreier graphs. We will then show how groups of automorphisms of rooted trees, related to automata groups , can be constructed and analyzed to get the desired rate of escape. This is joint work with Balint Virag of the University of Toronto. (Paper available at http://arxiv.org/abs/1203.6226)

No previous knowledge of random walks,automaton groups or wreath products is assumed.

Abstract: Hairer recently had the remarkable insight that Lyons' theory of rough paths can be used to make sense of nonlinear SPDEs that were previously ill-defined due to spatial irregularities. Since rough path theory deals with the integration of functions defined on the real line, the SPDEs studied by Hairer have a one-dimensional spatial index variable. I will show how to combine paraproducts, a notion from functional analysis, with ideas from the theory of controlled rough paths, in order to develop a formulation of rough path theory that works in any index dimension. As an application, I will present existence and uniqueness results for an SPDE with multidimensional spatial index set, for which previously it was not known how to describe solutions. No prior knowledge of rough paths or paraproducts is required for understanding the talk. This is joint work with Massimiliano Gubinelli and Peter Imkeller.