Research: End of an outbreak

Towards the end of an outbreak, we are interested in using epidemiological models to determine whether or not the outbreak has finished, or whether further cases are likely to occur. This work centres around estimating the so-called "end-of-outbreak" probability (i.e., the probability that no cases will happen in future).

One of the first methods for estimating the end-of-outbreak probability in real-time during an infectious disease outbreak was developed by a Japanese research group. That method has been used during outbreaks of diseases including MERS and COVID-19, and is straightforward to apply. However, despite being a useful method, under the assumed mathematical model that approach only generates an approximation of the end-of-outbreak probability.

We have recently been developing methods that can be used to calculate the end-of-outbreak probability exactly under the same transmission model. We have developed one method that can be applied when information is available about who-infected-whom in the outbreak (the outbreak transmission tree), and another method that can be applied when the outbreak transmission tree is not known.

We have also considered a range of different applications of the methods that we have developed. In one of our analyses, we have shown how estimates of the end-of-outbreak probability can be used during Ebola outbreaks to help policy-makers decide when to relax or remove public health measures.

Publications from our group that relate to estimation of the end-of-outbreak-probability include:

Thompson RN, Hart WS, Keita M, Fall I, Gueye A, Chamla D, Mossoko M, Ahuka-Mundeke S, Nsio-Mbeta J, Jombart T, Polonsky JA. Using real-time modelling to inform the 2017 Ebola outbreak response in DR Congo (2024) Nature Commun., 15:5667. (Available here)
Hart WS, Buckingham JM, Keita M, Ahuka-Mundeke S, Maini PK, Polonsky JA, Thompson RN. Optimizing the timing of an end-of-outbreak declaration: Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (2024) Science Adv., 10:eado7576. (Available here)
Bradbury NV, Hart WS, Lovell-Read FA, Polonsky JA, Thompson RN. Exact calculation of end-of-outbreak probabilities using contact tracing data (2023) J. R. Soc. Interface, 20:20230374. (Available here)
Linton NM, Lovell-Read FA, Southall E, Lee H, Akhmetzhanov A, Thompson RN, Nishiura H. When do epidemics end? Scientific insights from mathematical modelling studies (2022) Centaurus, 64:31-60. (Available here)
Akhmetzhanov AR, Jung S-M, Cheng H-Y, Thompson RN. A hospital-related outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 associated with variant Epsilon (B.1.429) in Taiwan: transmission potential and outbreak containment under intensified contact tracing, January-February 2021 (2021) Int. J. Inf. Dis., 110:15-20. (Available here)
Parag KV, Donnelly CA, Jha R, Thompson RN. An exact method for quantifying the reliability of end-of-epidemic declarations in real time (2020) PLoS Comp. Biol., 16:e1008478. (Available here)
Thompson RN, Morgan OW, Jalava K. Rigorous surveillance is necessary for high confidence in end-of-outbreak declarations for Ebola and other infectious diseases (2019) Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. B (Available here)

Return to our Research page by clicking here.