Thu, 29 Jan 2015
16:00
L4

Robust evaluation of risks under model uncertainty

Jocelyne Bion-Nadal
(CMAP ecole polytechnique)
Abstract

Dynamic risk measuring has been developed in recent years in the setting of a filtered probability space (Ω,(Ft)0≤t, P). In this setting the risk at time t is given by a Ft-measurable function defined as an ”ess-sup” of conditional expectations. The property of time consistency has been characterized in this setting. Model uncertainty means that instead of a reference probability easure one considers a whole set of probability measures which is furthermore non dominated. For example one needs to deal with this framework to make a robust evaluation of risks for derivative products when one assumes that the underlying model is a diffusion process with uncertain volatility. In this case every possible law for the underlying model is a probability measure solution to the associated martingale problem and the set of possible laws is non dominated.

In the framework of model uncertainty we face two kinds of problems. First the Q-conditional expectation is defined up to a Q-null set and second the sup of a non-countable family of measurable maps is not measurable. To encompass these problems we develop a new approach [1, 2] based on the “Martingale Problem”.

The martingale problem associated with a diffusion process with continuous coefficients has been introduced and studied by Stroock and Varadhan [4]. It has been extended by Stroock to the case of diffusion processes with Levy generators [3]. We study [1] the martingale problem associated with jump diffusions whose coefficients are path dependent. Under certain conditions on the path dependent coefficients, we prove existence and uniqueness of a probability measure solution to the path dependent martingale problem. Making use of the uniqueness of the solution we prove some ”Feller property”. This allows us to construct a time consistent robust evaluation of risks in the framework of model uncertainty [2].

References

[1] Bion-Nadal J., Martingale problem approach to path dependent diffusion processes with jumps, in preparation.

[2] Bion-Nadal J., Robust evaluation of risks from Martingale problem, in preparation.

[3] Strook D., Diffusion processes asociated with Levy generators, Z. Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie verw. Gebiete 32, pp. 209-244 (1975).

[4] Stroock D. and Varadhan S., Diffusion processes with continuous coefficients, I and II, Communications on Pure and Applied Mathematics, 22, pp 345-400 (1969).

 

Thu, 22 Jan 2015
16:00
L4

A Mean-Field Game Approach to Optimal Execution

Sebastian Jaimungal
(University of Toronto)
Abstract

This paper introduces a mean field game framework for optimal execution with continuous trading. We generalize the classical optimal liquidation problem to a setting where, in addition to the major agent who is liquidating a large portion of shares, there are a number of minor agents (high-frequency traders (HFTs)) who detect and trade along with the liquidator. Cross interaction between the minor and major agents occur through the impact that each trader has on the drift of the fundamental price. As in the classical approach, here, each agent is exposed to both temporary and permanent price impact and they attempt to balance their impact against price uncertainty. In all, this gives rise to a stochastic dynamic game with mean field couplings in the fundamental price. We obtain a set of decentralized strategies using a mean field stochastic control approach and explicitly solve for an epsilon-optimal control up to the solution of a deterministic fixed point problem. As well, we present some numerical results which illustrate how the liquidating agents trading strategy is altered in the presence of the HFTs, and how the HFTs trade to profit from the liquidating agents trading.

[ This is joint work with Mojtaba Nourin, Department of Statistical Sciences, U. Toronto ]

Tue, 17 Feb 2015

12:00 - 13:15
L5

Thermalisation and Revivals following a Quantum Quench in a 1+1-dimensional CFT

John Cardy
Abstract

In a quantum quench, a system is prepared in some state
$|\psi_0\rangle$, usually the ground state of a hamiltonian $H_0$, and then
evolved unitarily with a different hamiltonian $H$. I study this problem
when $H$ is a 1+1-dimensional conformal field theory on a large circle of
length $L$, and the initial state has short-range correlations and
entanglement. I argue that (a) for times $\ell/2<t<(L-\ell)/2$  the
reduced density matrix of a subinterval of length $\ell$ is exponentially
close to that of a thermal ensemble; (b) despite this, for a rational CFT
the return amplitude $\langle\psi_0|e^{-iHt}|\psi_0\rangle$ is $O(1)$ at
integer multiples of $2t/\ell$ and has interesting structure at all rational
values of this ratio. This last result is related to the modular properties
of Virasoro characters.

Tue, 20 Jan 2015

12:00 - 13:15
L5

Axion Cosmology

David Marsh (Perimeter Institute)
Abstract

Axions are ubiquitous in string theory compactifications. They are
pseudo goldstone bosons and can be extremely light, contributing to
the dark sector energy density in the present-day universe. The
mass defines a characteristic length scale. For 1e-33 eV<m< 1e-20
eV this length scale is cosmological and axions display novel
effects in observables. The magnitude of these effects is set by
the axion relic density. The axion relic density and initial
perturbations are established in the early universe before, during,
or after inflation (or indeed independently from it). Constraints
on these phenomena can probe physics at or beyond the GUT scale. I
will present multiple probes as constraints of axions: the Planck
temperature power spectrum, the WiggleZ galaxy redshift survey,
Hubble ultra deep field, the epoch of reionisation as measured by
cmb polarisation, cmb b-modes and primordial gravitational waves,
and the density profiles of dwarf spheroidal galaxies. Together

these probe the entire 13 orders of magnitude in axion mass where
axions are distinct from CDM in cosmology, and make non-trivial
statements about inflation and axions in the string landscape. The
observations hint that axions in the range 1e-22 eV<m<1e-20 eV may
play an interesting role in structure formation, and evidence for
this could be found in the future surveys AdvACT (2015), JWST, and
Euclid (>2020). If inflationary B-modes are observed, a wide range
of axion models including the anthropic window QCD axion are
excluded unless the theory of inflation is modified. I will also
comment briefly on direct detection of QCD axions.

 

Thu, 29 Jan 2015

16:00 - 17:00
L5

On the mod p reduction of Fredholm determinants for modular forms

John Bergdall
(Boston University)
Abstract

Fix a prime $p$. In this talk, we will discuss the $p$-adic properties of the *coefficients* of the characteristic power series of $U_{p}$ acting on spaces of overconvergent $p$-adic modular forms. These coefficients are, by a theorem of Coleman, power series in the weight variable over $Z_{p}$.  Our first goal will be to show that in tame level one, the simplest case, every coefficient is non-zero mod $p$ and then to give some idea of the (finitely many) roots of each coefficient. The second goal will be to explain how it the previous result fails in higher levels, along with possible salvages. This will include revisiting the tame level one case. The progress we've made has applications, and lends understanding, to recent work being made elsewhere on the geometric structure of the eigencurve "near its boundary". This is joint work with Rob Pollack.

Thu, 15 Jan 2015

12:00 - 13:00
L3

Regularity for double phase variational integrals

Giuseppe Mingione
(Parma)
Abstract
Those mentioned in the title are integral functionals of the Calculus of Variations

characterized by the fact of having an integrand switching between two different

kinds of degeneracies, dictated by a modulating coefficient. They have introduced

by Zhikov in the context of Homogenization and to give new examples of the related

Lavrentiev phenomenon. In this talk I will present some recent results aimed at

drawing a complete regularity theory for minima.
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