16:30
Recent developments on evolution PDEs on graphs
Abstract
The seminar concerns the study of evolution equations on graphs, motivated by applications in data science and opinion dynamics. We will discuss graph analogues of the continuum nonlocal-interaction equation and interpret them as gradient flows with respect to a graph Wasserstein distance, using Benamou--Brenier formulation. The underlying geometry of the problem leads to a Finslerian gradient flow structure, rather than Riemannian, since the resulting distance on graphs is actually a quasi-metric. We will address the existence of suitably defined solutions, as well as their asymptotic behaviour when the number of vertices converges to infinity and the graph structure localises. The two limits lead to different dynamics. From a slightly different perspective, by means of a classical fixed-point argument, we can show the existence and uniqueness of solutions to a larger class of nonlocal continuity equations on graphs. In this context, we consider general interpolation functions of the mass on the edges, which give rise to a variety of different dynamics. Our analysis reveals structural differences with the more standard Euclidean space, as some analogous properties rely on the interpolation chosen. The latter study can be extended to equations on co-evolving graphs. The talk is based on works in collaboration with G. Heinze (Augsburg), L. Mikolas (Oxford), F. S. Patacchini (IFP Energies Nouvelles), A. Schlichting (University of Münster), and D. Slepcev (Carnegie Mellon University).
During the COVID-19 pandemic, mathematical modelling played a major role in informing public health policy responses. A key question for public health policy makers is whether the introduction of a virus into a population is likely to lead to sustained transmission. This is critical for understanding the epidemic and/or pandemic potential of a novel virus – notably, for example, following the first detected COVID-19 cases in Wuhan, China.
A multilinear Nyström algorithm for low-rank approximation of tensors in Tucker format
Abstract
The Nyström method offers an effective way to obtain low-rank approximation of SPD matrices, and has been recently extended and analyzed to nonsymmetric matrices (leading to the randomized, single-pass, streamable, cost-effective, and accurate alternative to the randomized SVD, and it facilitates the computation of several matrix low-rank factorizations. In this presentation, we take these advancements a step further by introducing a higher-order variant of Nyström's methodology tailored to approximating low-rank tensors in the Tucker format: the multilinear Nyström technique. We show that, by introducing appropriate small modifications in the formulation of the higher-order method, strong stability properties can be obtained. This algorithm retains the key attributes of the generalized Nyström method, positioning it as a viable substitute for the randomized higher-order SVD algorithm.
16:00
Detecting Lead-Lag Relationships in Stock Returns and Portfolio Strategies
Abstract
We propose a method to detect linear and nonlinear lead-lag relationships in stock returns. Our approach uses pairwise Lévy-area and cross-correlation of returns to rank the assets from leaders to followers. We use the rankings to construct a portfolio that longs or shorts the followers based on the previous returns of the leaders, and the stocks are ranked every time the portfolio is rebalanced. The portfolio also takes an offsetting position on the SPY ETF so that the initial value of the portfolio is zero. Our data spans from 1963 to 2022 and we use an average of over 500 stocks to construct portfolios for each trading day. The annualized returns of our lead-lag portfolios are over 20%, and the returns outperform all lead-lag benchmarks in the literature. There is little overlap between the leaders and the followers we find and those that are reported in previous studies based on market capitalization, volume traded, and intra-industry relationships. Our findings support the slow information diffusion hypothesis; i.e., portfolios rebalanced once a day consistently outperform the bidiurnal, weekly, bi-weekly, tri-weekly, and monthly rebalanced portfolios.