Ambiguity-Averse Deep Hedging
Abstract
The uncertainty in future market dynamics is an important consideration when developing strategies for hedging derivatives, particularly data driven strategies such as deep hedging. Deep market generators can produce higher fidelity training data than classical models, but, like those, typically require frequent recalibration to new market data. The resulting strategies are thus susceptible to underperformance if there is a mismatch (distributional shift) between training data and live data. We present a framework to train a modified deep hedger which displays a form of ambiguity aversion, henceforth termed an Ambiguity-Averse Deep Hedger (AADH). The modeller has full control over exactly which aspects of distributional shifts the AADH is to be robust to, through selection of features relevant to the trading strategy which are used to cluster the training data, allowing for the evaluation of a loss function motivated by the theory of smooth ambiguity aversion.
Space, time and Shakespeare - Paul Glendinning