Past Mathematical Geoscience Seminar

In contemporary ecology and mathematical biology undergraduate courses, textbooks focus on competition and predation models despite it being accepted that most species on Earth are involved in mutualist relationships. Mutualism is usually discussed more briefly in texts, often from an observational perspective, and obligate mutualism mostly not at all. Part of the reason for this is the lack of a simple math model to successfully explain the observations. Traditionally, particular nonlinearities  are used, which produce a variety of apparently disparate models.

The failure of the traditional linear model to describe coexisting mutualists has been documented from May (1973) through Murray (2001) to Bronstein (2015). Here we argue that this could be because of the use of carrying capacity, and propose the use of a nutrient pool instead, which implies the need for an autotroph (e.g. a plant) that converts nutrients into living resources for higher trophic levels. We show that such a linear model can successfully explain the major features of obligate mutualism when simple expressions for obligated growth are included.

The last 500 million years of Earth’s history have been punctuated by numerous episodes of abrupt climate change, some of them coincident with mass extinction events. Many of these climate events have been associated with massive volcanism, occurring during the emplacement of so-called Large Igneous Provinces (LIPs). Because of the significant impact of small modern eruptions on the Earth’s climate, a link between LIP volcanism and past climate change has been strongly advocated. Geochemical investigations of the sedimentary records which record major climate changes can give a profound insight into the proposed interactions between volcanic activity and climate. Mercury is a trace-gas emitted by modern volcanoes, which are the main source of this metal to the atmosphere. Ultimately atmospheric mercury is deposited in sediments, thus if enrichments in mercury are observed in sediments of the same age across the globe, a volcanic cause of these enrichments might be inferred. Osmium isotopes can also be used as a fingerprint of volcanic activity, as primitive basalts are enriched in unradiogenic 188Os. However, the continental crust is enriched in radiogenic 187Os. Therefore, the 187Os/188Os ratio can change with either more volcanic activity, or increased continental weathering during climate change. Changes in sedimentary mercury content and osmium isotopes can thus be used as markers of volcanism or weathering during climate events. However, a possible future step would be to quantify the amount of volcanism and/or weathering on the basis of these sedimentary excursions. The final part of this talk will introduce some simple quantitative models which may represent a first step towards such quantification, with the aim of further elaborating these models in the future.

The existence of planetary and stellar magnetic fields is attributed to the dynamo instability, the mechanism by which a background turbulent flow spontaneously generates a magnetic field by the constructive refolding of magnetic field lines. Many efforts have been made by several experimental groups to reproduce the dynamo instability in the laboratory using liquid metals. However, so far, unconstrained dynamos driven by turbulent flows have not been achieved in the intrinsically low magnetic Prandtl number $P_m$ (i.e. $Pm = Rm/Re << 1$) laboratory experiments. In this seminar I will demonstrate that the critical magnetic Reynolds number $Rm_c$ for turbulent non-helical dynamos in the low $P_m$ limit can be significantly reduced if the flow is submitted to global rotation. Even for moderate rotation rates the required energy injection rate can be reduced by a factor more than 1000. Our finding thus points into a new paradigm for the design of new liquid metal dynamo experiments.

I will describe our research on numerical methods for atmospheric dynamical cores based on compatible finite element methods. These methods extend the properties of the Arakawa C-grid to finite element methods by using compatible finite element spaces that respect the elementary identities of vector-calculus. These identities are crucial in demonstrating basic stability properties that are necessary to prevent the spurious numerical degradation of geophysical balances that would otherwise make numerical discretisations unusable for weather and climate prediction without the introduction of undesirable numerical dissipation. The extension to finite element methods allow these properties to be enjoyed on non-orthogonal grids, unstructured multiresolution grids, and with higher-order discretisations. In addition to these linear properties, for the shallow water equations, the compatible finite element structure can also be used to build numerical discretisations that respect conservation of energy, potential vorticity and enstrophy; I will survey these properties. We are currently developing a discretisation of the 3D compressible Euler equations based on this framework in the UK Dynamical Core project (nicknamed "Gung Ho"). The challenge is to design discretisation of the nonlinear operators that remain stable and accurate within the compatible finite element framework. I will survey our progress on this work to date and present some numerical results.

Following several decades of development by applied mathematicians, models of ocean wave interactions with sea ice floes are now in high demand due to the rapid recent changes in the world’s sea ice cover. From a mathematical perspective, the models are of interest due to the thinness of the floes, leading to elastic responses of the floes to waves, and the vast number of floes that waves encounter. Existing models are typically based on linear theories, but the thinness of the floes leads to the unique and highly nonlinear phenomenon of overwash, where waves run over the floes, in doing so dissipating wave energy and impacting the floes thermodynamically. I will give an overview of methods developed for the wave-floe problem, and present a new, bespoke overwash model, along with supporting laboratory experiments and numerical CFD simulations.

Dedalus is a new open-source framework for solving general partial differential equations using spectral methods.  It is designed for maximum extensibility and incorporates features such as symbolic equation entry, custom domain construction, and automatic MPI parallelization.  I will briefly describe key algorithmic features of the code, including our sparse formulation and support for general tensor calculus in curvilinear domains.  I will then show examples of the code’s capabilities with various applications to astrophysical and geophysical fluid dynamics, including a compressible flow benchmark against a finite volume code, and direct numerical simulations of turbulent glacial melting

In my research I model three components of the Earth system: the ice sheets, the ocean, and the solid Earth. In the first half of this talk I will describe the traditional approach that is used to model the impact of ice sheet growth and decay on global sea-level change and solid Earth deformation. I will then go on to explain how collaboration across the fields of glaciology, geodynamics and seismology is providing exciting new insight into feedbacks between ice dynamics and solid Earth deformation.

In July 2011, the observation of a massive phytoplankton bloom underneath a sea ice–covered region of the Chukchi Sea shifted the scientific consensus that regions of the Arctic Ocean covered by sea ice were inhospitable to photosynthetic life. Although the impact of widespread phytoplankton blooms under sea ice on Arctic Ocean ecology and carbon fixation is potentially marked, the prevalence of these events in the modern Arctic and in the recent past is, to date, unknown. We investigate the timing, frequency, and evolution of these events over the past 30 years. Although sea ice strongly attenuates solar radiation, it has thinned significantly over the past 30 years. The thinner summertime Arctic sea ice is increasingly covered in melt ponds, which permit more light penetration than bare or snow-covered ice. We develop a simple mathematical model to investigate these physical mechanisms. Our model results indicate that the recent thinning of Arctic sea ice is the main cause of a marked increase in the prevalence of light conditions conducive to sub-ice blooms. We find that as little as 20 years ago, the conditions required for sub-ice blooms may have been uncommon, but their frequency has increased to the point that nearly 30% of the ice-covered Arctic Ocean in July permits sub-ice blooms. Recent climate change may have markedly altered the ecology of the Arctic Ocean.

Many northern hemisphere climate records show a series of rapid climate changes - Dansgaard-Oesgher (D-O) cycles - that recurred on centennial to millennial timescales throughout most of the last glacial period.  They consist of sudden warming jumps of order 10°C, followed generally by a slow cooling lasting a few centuries, and then a rapid temperature drop into a cold period of similar length.  Most explanations for D-O events call on changes in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), but the mechanism for triggering and pacing such changes is uncertain. Changes in freshwater delivery to the ocean are assumed to be important. 

Here, we investigate whether the proposed AMOC changes could have occurred as part of a natural relaxation oscillation, in which runoff from the northern hemisphere ice sheets varies in response to each warming and cooling event, and in turn provides the freshwater delivery that controls the ocean circulation.  In this mechanism the changes are buffered and paced by slow changes in salnity of the Arctic ocean.  We construct a simple model to investigate whether the timescales and magnitudes make this a viable mechanism.  

Radar data from both Greenland and Antarctica show folds and other disruptions to the stratigraphy of the deep ice. The mechanisms by which stratigraphy deforms are related to the interplay between ice flow and topography. Here we show that when ice flows across valleys or overdeepenings, viscous overturnings called Moffatt eddies can develop. At the base of a subglacial valley, the shear on the valley walls is transfered through the ice, forcing the ice to overturn. To understand the formation of these eddies, we numerically solve the non-Newtonian Stokes equations with a Glen's law rheology to determine the critical valley angle for the eddies to form. The decrease in ice viscosity with shear enhances shear localization and, therefore, Moffatt eddies form in smaller valley angles (steeper slopes) than in a fluid that does not localize shear, such as a Newtonian fluid. When temperature is incorporated into the ice rheology, the warmer basal ice is less viscous and eddies form in larger valley angles (shallower slopes) than in isothermal ice. We apply our simulations to the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains and solve for the ice flow over radar-determined topography. These simulations show Moffatt eddies on the order of 100 meters tall in the deep subglacial valleys.

The mathematical design of the table flood demonstrator Wetropolis will be presented. Wetropolis illustrates the concepts of extreme rainfall and flooding.

It shows how extreme rainfall events  can cause flooding of a city due to groundwater and river flood peaks. Rainfall is supplied randomly in space using four outcomes (in a reservoir, on a moor, at both places or nowhere) and randomly in time using four rainfall intensities (1s, 2s, 4s, or 9s during a 10s Wetropolis day), including one extreme event, via two skew-symmetric discrete probability distributions visualised by two Galton boards. Wetropolis can be used for both public outreach and as scientific testing environment for flood mitigation and data assimilation.

More information: https://www.facebook.com/resurging.flows

The spreading of a viscous fluid in between a rigid, horizontal substrate and an overlying elastic sheet is presented as a simplified model of the hydraulic fracturing process. In particular, the talk will focus on the case of a permeable substrate for which leak-off arrests the propagation of the fluid and permits the development of a steady state. The different regimes of  gravitationally-driven and elastically-driven flow will be explored, as will the cases of a stiff and flexible sheet, before a discussion of the influence that particles included in the fluid have on the fracture propagation. 

Strombolian volcanoes are thought to maintain their semi-permanent eruptive style by means of counter-current two-phase convective flow in the volcanic conduit leading from the magma chamber, driven by the buoyancy provided by exsolution of volatiles such as water vapour and carbon dioxide in the upwelling magma, due to pressure release. A model of bubbly two-phase flow is presented to describe this, but it is found that the solution breaks down before the vent at the surface is reached. We propose that the mathematical breakdown of the solution is associated with the physical breakdown of the two-phase flow regime from a bubbly flow to a churn-turbulent flow. We provide a second two-phase flow model to describe this regime, and we show that the solution can be realistically continued to the vent. The model is also in keeping with observations of eruptive style.

The vast majority of the World's documented meteorite specimens have been collected from Antarctica. This is due to Antarctica’s ice dynamics, which allows for the significant concentration of meteorites onto ice surfaces known as Meteorite Stranding Zones. However, meteorite collection data shows a significant anomaly exists: the proportion of iron-based meteorites are under-represented compared to those found in the rest of the World. Here I explain that englacial solar warming provides a plausible explanation for this shortfall: as meteorites are transported up towards the surface of the ice they become exposed to increasing amounts of solar radiation, meaning it is possible for meteorites with a high-enough thermal conductivity (such as iron) to reach a depth at which they melt their underlying ice and sink back downwards, offsetting the upwards transportation. An enticing consequence of this mechanism is that a sparse layer of  meteorites lies just beneath the surface of these Meteorite Stranding Zones...

Inverse problems arise in many applications. One could solve them by adopting a Bayesian framework, to account for uncertainty which arises from our observations. The solution of an inverse problem is given by a probability distribution. Usually, efficient methods at hand to extract information from this probability distribution involves the solution of an optimization problem, where the objective function is highly nonconvex. In this talk, we explore a reformulation of inverse problems, which helps in convexifying the objective function. We also discuss a method to sample from this probability distribution.

Much of our understanding of the tropospheric dynamics relies on the concept of discrete internal modes. However, discrete modes are the signature of a finite system, while the atmosphere should be modeled as infinite and "is characterized by a single isolated eigenmode and a continuous spectrum" (Lindzen, JAS 2003). Is it then unphysical to use discrete modes? To resolve this issue we obtain an approximate radiation condition at the tropopause --- this yields an EBC. We then use this EBC to compute a new set of vertical modes: the leaky rigid lid modes. These modes decay, with decay time-scales for the first few modes ranging from an hour to a week. This suggests that the rate of energy loss through upwards propagating waves may be an important factor in setting the time scale for some atmospheric phenomena. The modes are not orthogonal, but they are complete, with a simple way to project initial conditions onto them.

The EBC formulation requires an extension of the dispersive wave theory. There it is shown that sinusoidal waves carry energy with the group speed c_g = d omega / dk, where both the frequency omega and wavenumber k are real. However, when there are losses, complex k's and omega's arise, and a more general theory is required. I will briefly comment on this theory, and on how the Laplace Transform can be used to implement generic EBC.

In this talk, I will present two different aspects of the ice flow modelling, including a theoretical part and an applied part. In the theoretical part, I will derive some "mechanical error estimators'', i.e. estimators that can measure the mechanical error between the most accurate ice flow model (Glen-Stokes) and some approximations based on shallowness assumption. To do so, I will follow residual techniques used to obtain a posteriori estimators of the numerical error in finite element methods for non-linear elliptic problems. In the applied part, I will present some simulations of the ice flow generated by the Rhone Glacier, Switzerland, during the last glacial maximum (~ 22 000 years ago), analyse the trajectories taken by erratic boulders of different origins, and compare these results to geomorphological observations. In particular, I will show that erratic boulders, whose origin is known, constitute valuable data to infer information about paleo-climate, which is the most uncertain input of any paleo ice sheet model. 

The accumulation of surface meltwater on ice shelves can lead to the formation of melt lakes. These structures have been implicated in crevasse propagation and ice-shelf collapse; the Larsen B ice shelf was observed to have a large amount of melt lakes present on its surface just before its collapse in 2002. Through modelling the transport of heat through the surface of the Larsen C ice shelf, where melt lakes have also been observed, this work aims to provide new insights into the ways in which melt lakes are forming and the effect that meltwater filling crevasses on the ice shelf will have. This will enable an assessment of the role of meltwater in triggering ice-shelf collapse. The Antarctic Peninsula, where Larsen C is situated, has warmed several times the global average over the last century and this ice shelf has been suggested as a candidate for becoming fully saturated with meltwater by the end of the current century. Here we present results of a 1-D mathematical model of heat transfer through an idealized ice shelf. When forced with automatic weather station data from Larsen C, surface melting and the subsequent meltwater accumulation, melt lake development and refreezing are demonstrated through the modelled results. Furthermore, the effect of lateral meltwater transport upon melt lakes and the effect of the lakes upon the surface energy balance are examined. Investigating the role of meltwater in ice-shelf stability is key as collapse can affect ocean circulation and temperature, and cause a loss of habitat. Additionally, it can cause a loss of the buttressing effect that ice shelves can have on their tributary glaciers, thus allowing the glaciers to accelerate, contributing to sea-level rise.

Accurate methods for the first-order advection equation, used for example in tracking contaminants in fluids, usually exploit the theory of characteristics. Such methods are described and contrasted with methods that do not make use of characteristics.

Then the second-order wave equation, in the form of a first-order system, is considered. A review of the one-dimensional theory using solutions of various Riemann problems will be provided. In the special case that the medium has the ‘Goupillaud’ property, that waves take the same time to travel through each layer, one can derive exact solutions even when the medium is spatially heterogeneous. The extension of this method to two-dimensional problems will then be discussed. In two-dimensions it is not apparent that exact solutions can be found, however by exploiting a generalised Goupillaud property, it is possible to calculate approximate solutions of high accuracy, perhaps sufficient to be of benchmark quality. Some two-dimensional simulations, using exact one-dimensional solutions and operator splitting, will be described and a numerical evaluation of accuracy will be given.

In this talk I will review mathematical models used to describe the dynamics of ice sheets, and highlight some current areas of active research.  Melting of glaciers and ice sheets causes an increase in global sea level, and provides many other feedbacks on isostatic adjustment, the dynamics of the ocean, and broader climate patterns.  The rate of melting has increased in recent years, but there is still considerable uncertainty over  why this is, and whether the increase will continue.  Central to these questions is understanding the physics of how the ice intereacts with the atmosphere, the ground on which it rests, and with the ocean at its margins.  I will given an overview of the fluid mechanical problems involved and the current state of mathematical/computational modelling.  I will focus particularly on the issue of changing lubrication due to water flowing underneath the ice, and discuss how we can use models to rationalise observations of ice speed-up and slow-down.

Humpback whales are iconic mammals at the top of the Antarctic food chain. Their large reserves of lipid-rich tissues such as blubber predispose them to accumulation of lipophilic contaminants throughout their lifetime. Changes in the volume and distribution of lipids in humpback whales, particularly during migration, could play an important role in the pharmacokinetics of lipophilic contaminants such as the organochlorine pesticide hexachlorobenzene (HCB). Previous models have examined constant feeding and nonmigratory scenarios. In the present study, the authors develop a novel heuristic model to investigate HCB dynamics in a humpback whale and its environment by coupling an ecosystem nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus (NPZD) model, a dynamic energy budget (DEB) model, and a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model. The model takes into account the seasonal feeding pattern of whales, their energy requirements, and fluctuating contaminant burdens in the supporting plankton food chain. It is applied to a male whale from weaning to maturity, spanning 20 migration and feeding cycles. The model is initialized with environmental HCB burdens similar to those measured in the Southern Ocean and predicts blubber HCB concentrations consistent with empirical concentrations observed in a southern hemisphere population of male, migrating humpback whales. 

It has been conjectured that marine ice sheets (those that

flow into the ocean) are unconditionally unstable when the underlying

bed-slope runs uphill in the direction of flow, as is typical in many

regions underneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. This conjecture is

supported by theoretical studies that assume a two-dimensional flow

idealization. However, if the floating section (the ice shelf) is

subject to three-dimensional stresses from the edges of the embayments

into which they flow, as is typical of many ice shelves in Antarctica,

then the ice shelf creates a buttress that supports the ice sheet.

This allows the ice sheet to remain stable under conditions that may

otherwise result in collapse of the ice sheet. This talk presents new

theoretical and experimental results relating to the effects of

three-dimensional stresses on the flow and structure of ice shelves,

and their potential to stabilize marine ice sheets.

There is wide interest in the oceanographic and engineering communities as to whether linear models are satisfactory for describing the largest and steepest waves in open ocean. This talk will give some background on the topic before describing some recent modelling. This concludes that non-linear physics produces only small increases in amplitude over that expected in a linear model — however, there are significant changes to the shape and structure of extreme wave-group caused by the non-linear physics.

Across much of the ablation region of the western Greenland Ice Sheet, hydro-fracture events related to supraglacial lake drainages rapidly deliver large volumes of meltwater to the bed of the ice sheet. We investigate what triggers the rapid drainage of a large supraglacial lake using a Network Inversion Filter (NIF) to invert a dense local network of GPS observations over three summers (2011-2013). The NIF is used to determine the spatiotemporal variability in ice sheet behavior (1) prior to lake drainage, and in response to (2) vertical hydro-fracture crack propagation and closure, (3) the opening of a horizontal cavity at the ice-sheet bed that accommodates the rapid injection of melt-water, and (4) extra basal slip due to enhanced lubrication. We find that the opening and propagation of each summer’s lake-draining hydro-fracture is preceded by a local stress perturbation associated with ice sheet uplift and enhanced slip above pre-drainage background velocities. We hypothesize that these precursors are associated with the introduction of meltwater to the bed through neighboring moulin systems.

Studies of thermal convection in planetary interiors have largely focused on convection above the critical Rayleigh number. However, convection in planetary mantles and crusts can also occur under subcritical conditions. Subcritical convection exhibits phenomena which do not exist above the critical Rayleigh number. One such phenomenon is spatial localization characterized by the formation of stable, spatially isolated convective cells. Spatial localization occurs in a broad range of viscosity laws including temperature-dependent viscosity and power-law viscosity and may explain formation of some surface features observed on rocky and icy bodies in the Solar System.

Shear Thickening fluids such as cornstarch and water show remarkable response under impact, which allows, for example, a person to run on the surface of the suspension. We perform constant velocity impact experiments along with imaging and particle tracking in a shear thickening fluid at velocities lower than 500 mm/s and suspension heights of a few cm. In this regime, where inertial effects are insignificant, we find that a solid-like dynamically jammed region with a propagating front is generated under impact. The suspension is able to support large stresses like a solid only when the front reaches the opposite boundary. These impact-activated fronts are generated only above a critical velocity. We construct a model by taking into account that sufficiently large stresses are generated when this solid like region spans to the opposite boundary and the work necessary to deform this solid like material dissipates the kinetic energy of the impacting object. The model shows quantitative agreement of the measured penetration depth using high speed video of a person running on cornstarch and water suspensions.

The role of surface-water flooding in controlling fluxes of water and carbon between the land and the atmosphere is increasingly recognized in studies of the Earth system. Simultaneous advances in remote earth observation and large-scale land-surface and hydrological modeling promise improvements in our ability to understand these linkages, and suggest that improvements in prediction of river flow and inundation extents may result. Here we present an analysis of newly-available observational estimates of surface water inundation obtained through satellite Earth observation with results from simulations produced by using the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land-surface model operating at 0.5 degree resolution over the African continent. The model was forced with meteorological input from the WATCH Forcing Data for the period 1981-2001 and sensitivity to various model configurations and parameter settings were tested. Both the PDM and TOPMODEL sub-grid scale runoff generation schemes were tested for parameter sensitivities, with the evaluation focussing on simulated river discharge in sub-catchments of the Congo, Nile, Niger, Orange, Okavango and Zambezi rivers. It was found that whilst the water balance in each of the catchments can be simulated with acceptable accuracy, the individual responses of each river vary between model configurations so that there is no single runoff parameterization scheme or parameter values that yields optimal results across all catchments. We trace these differences to the model’s representation of sub-surface flow and make some suggestions to improve the performance of large-scale land-surface models for use in similar applications. Our findings also demonstrate links between episodes of extensive surface water flooding and large-scale climatic indices, although the pattern of correlations contains a level of spatial and temporal detail that warrants careful attention to the climatology of individual situations. These findings suggest that the use of Earth observation data together with improved models of large-scale hydrology have the potential to improve our ability to predict surface-water flooding and to develop our understanding of the role of flooding in driving components of the water and carbon cycles.

Contraction cracks form captivating patterns such as those seen in dried mud or the polygonal networks that cover the polar regions of Earth and Mars. These patterns can be controlled, for example in the artistic craquelure sometimes found in pottery glazes. More practically, a growing zoo of patterns, including parallel arrays of cracks, spiral cracks, wavy cracks, lenticular or en-passant cracks, etc., are known from simple experiments in thin films – essentially drying paint – and are finding application in surfaces with engineered properties. Through such work we are also learning how natural crack patterns can be interpreted, for example in the use of dried blood droplets for medical or forensic diagnosis, or to understand how scales develop on the heads of crocodiles.

I will discuss mud cracks, how they form, and their use as a simple laboratory analogue system. For flat mud layers I will show how sequential crack formation leads to a rectilinear crack network, with cracks meeting each other at roughly 90°. By allowing cracks to repeatedly form and heal, I will describe how this pattern evolves into a hexagonal pattern. This is the origin of several striking real-world systems: columnar joints in starch and lava; cracks in gypsum-cemented sand; and the polygonal terrain in permafrost. Finally, I will turn to look at crack patterns over uneven substrates, such as paint over the grain of wood, or on geophysical scales involving buried craters, and identify when crack patterns are expected to be dominated by what lies beneath them. In exploring all these different situations I will highlight the role of energy release in selecting the crack patterns that are seen.

Ice streams are narrow bands of rapidly sliding ice within an otherwise

slowly flowing continental ice sheet. Unlike the rest of the ice sheet,

which flows as a typical viscous gravity current, ice streams experience

weak friction at their base and behave more like viscous 'free films' or

membranes. The reason for the weak friction is the presence of liquid

water at high pressure at the base of the ice; the water is in turn

generated as a result of dissipation of heat by the flow of the ice

stream. I will explain briefly how this positive feedback can explain the

observed (or inferred, as the time scales are rather long) oscillatory

behaviour of ice streams as a relaxation oscillation. A key parameter in

simple models for such ice stream 'surges' is the width of an ice stream.

Relatively little is understood about what controls how the width of an

ice stream evolves in time. I will focus on this problem for most of the

talk, showing how intense heat dissipation in the margins of an ice stream

combined with large heat fluxes associated with a switch in thermal

boundary conditions may control the rate at which the margin of an ice

stream migrates. The relevant mathematics involves a somewhat non-standard

contact problem, in which a scalar parameter must be chosen to control the

location of the contact region. I will demonstrate how the problem can be

solved using the Wiener-Hopf method, and show recent extensions of this

work to more realistic physics using a finite element discretization.

A form of PDE-constrained inversion is today used as an engineering tool for seismic imaging. Today there are some successful studies and good workflows are available. However, mathematicians will find some important unanswered questions: (1) robustness of inversion with highly nonconvex objective functions; (2) scalable solution highly oscillatory problem; and (3) handling of uncertainties. We shall briefly illustrate these challenges, and mention some possible solutions.

One of the main obstacles to forecasting sea level rise over the coming centuries is the problem of predicting changes in the flow of ice sheets, and in particular their fast-flowing outlet glaciers. While numerical models of ice sheet flow exist, they are often hampered by a lack of input data, particularly concerning the bedrock topography beneath the ice. Measurements of this topography are relatively scarce, expensive to obtain, and often error-prone. In contrast, observations of surface elevations and velocities are widespread and accurate.

In an ideal world, we could combine surface observations with our understanding of ice flow to invert for the bed topography. However, this problem is ill-posed, and solutions are both unstable and non-unique. Conventionally, this problem is circumvented by the use of regularization terms in the inversion, but these are often arbitrary and the numerical methods are still somewhat unstable.

One philosophically appealing option is to apply a fully Bayesian framework to the problem. Although some success has been had in this area, the resulting distributions are extremely difficult to work with, both from an interpretive standpoint and a numerical one. In particular, certain forms of prior information, such as constraints on the bedrock slope and roughness, are extremely difficult to represent in this framework.

A more profitable avenue for exploration is a semi-Bayesian approach, whereby a classical inverse method is regularized using terms derived from a Bayesian model of the problem. This allows for the inclusion of quite sophisticated forms of prior information, while retaining the tractability of the classical inverse problem. In particular, we can account for the severely non-Gaussian error distribution of many of our measurements, which was previously impossible.

On calm clear nights a minimum in air temperature can occur just above the ground at heights of order 0.5m or less. This is contrary to the conventional belief that ground is the point of minimum. This feature is paradoxical as an apparent unstable layer (the height below the point of minimum) sustains itself for several hours. This was first reported from India by Ramdas and his coworkers in 1932 and was disbelieved initially and attributed to flawed thermometers. We trace its history, acceptance and present a mathematical model in the form of a PDE that simulates this phenomenon.

Marine-ice formation occurs on a vast range of length scales: from millimetre scale frazil crystals, to consolidated sea ice a metre thick, to deposits of marine ice under ice shelves that are hundreds of kilometres long. Scaling analyses is therefore an attractive and powerful technique to understand and predict phenomena associated with marine-ice formation, for example frazil crystal growth and the convective desalination of consolidated sea ice. However, there are a number of potential pitfalls arising from the assumptions implicit in the scaling analyses. In this talk, I tease out the assumptions relevant to these examples and test them, allowing me to derive simple conceptual models that capture the important geophysical mechanisms affecting marine-ice formation. 

Explosive volcanic eruptions often produce large amounts of ash that is transported high into the atmosphere in a turbulent buoyant plume.  The ash can be spread widely and is hazardous to aircraft causing major disruption to air traffic.  Recent events, such as the eruption of Eyjafjallajokull, Iceland, in 2010 have demonstrated the need for forecasts of ash transport to manage airspace.  However, the ash dispersion forecasts require boundary conditions to specify the rate at which ash is delivered into the atmosphere.

Models of volcanic plumes can be used to describe the transport of ash from the vent into the atmosphere.  I will show how models of volcanic plumes can be developed, building on classical fluid mechanical descriptions of turbulent plumes developed by Morton, Taylor and Turner (1956), and how these are used to determine the volcanic source conditions.  I will demonstrate the strong atmospheric controls on the buoyant plume rise.  Typically steady models are used as solutions can be obtained rapidly, but unsteadiness in the volcanic source can be important.  I'll discuss very recent work that has developed unsteady models of volcanic plumes, highlighting the mathematical analysis required to produce a well-posed mathematical description.

One of the main obstacles to forecasting sea level rise over the coming centuries is the problem of predicting changes in the flow of ice sheets, and in particular their fast-flowing outlet glaciers. While numerical models of ice sheet flow exist, they are often hampered by a lack of input data, particularly concerning the bedrock topography beneath the ice. Measurements of this topography are relatively scarce, expensive to obtain, and often error-prone. In contrast, observations of surface elevations and velocities are widespread and accurate.

In an ideal world, we could combine surface observations with our understanding of ice flow to invert for the bed topography. However, this problem is ill-posed, and solutions are both unstable and non-unique. Conventionally, this problem is circumvented by the use of regularization terms in the inversion, but these are often arbitrary and the numerical methods are still somewhat unstable.

One philosophically appealing option is to apply a fully Bayesian framework to the problem. Although some success has been had in this area, the resulting distributions are extremely difficult to work with, both from an interpretive standpoint and a numerical one. In particular, certain forms of prior information, such as constraints on the bedrock slope and roughness, are extremely difficult to represent in this framework.

A more profitable avenue for exploration is a semi-Bayesian approach, whereby a classical inverse method is regularized using terms derived from a Bayesian model of the problem. This allows for the inclusion of quite sophisticated forms of prior information, while retaining the tractability of the classical inverse problem. In particular, we can account for the severely non-Gaussian error distribution of many of our measurements, which was previously impossible.

We will present results from studies of the impact of the non-slow (typically fast) components of a rotating, stratified flow on its slow dynamics. We work in the framework of fast singular limits that derives from the work of Bogoliubov and Mitropolsky [1961], Klainerman and Majda [1981], Shochet [1994], Embid and Ma- jda [1996] and others.

In order to understand how the flow approaches and interacts with the slow dynamics we decompose the full solution, where u is a vector of all the unknowns, as

u = u α + u ′α where α represents the Ro → 0, F r → 0 or the simultaneous limit of both (QG for

quasi-geostrophy), with

P α u α = u α    P α u ′α = 0 ,

and where Pαu represents the projection of the full solution onto the null space of the fast operator. We use this decomposition to find evolution equations for the components of the flow (and the corresponding energy) on and off the slow manifold.

Numerical simulations indicate that for the geometry considered (triply periodic) and the type of forcing applied, the fast waves act as a conduit, moving energy onto the slow manifold. This decomposition clarifies how the energy is exchanged when either the stratification or the rotation is weak. In the quasi-geostrophic limit the energetics are less clear, however it is observed that the energy off the slow manifold equilibrates to a quasi-steady value.

We will also discuss generalizations of the method of cancellations of oscillations of Schochet for two distinct fast time scales, i.e. which fast time scale is fastest? We will give an example for the quasi-geostrophic limit of the Boussinesq equations.

At the end we will briefly discuss how understanding the role of oscillations has allowed us to develop convergent algorithms for parallel-in-time methods.

Beth A. Wingate - University of Exeter

Jared Whitehead - Brigham Young University

Terry Haut - Los Alamos National Laboratory

Seismology currently undergoes rapid and exciting advances fueled by a simultaneous surge in recorded data (in both quality and quantity), realistic wave-propagation algorithms, and supercomputing capabilities. This enables us to sample parameter spaces of relevance for imaging the Earth's interior 3D structure with fully numerical techniques. Seismic imaging is the prime approach to illuminate and understand global processes such as mantle convection, plate tectonics, geodynamo, the vigorous interior of the Sun, and delivers crucial constraints on our grasp of volcanism, the carbon cycle and seismicity. At local scales, seismic Earth models are inevitable for hydrocarbon exploration, monitoring of flow processes, and natural hazard assessment.

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With a slight focus on global-scale applications, I will present the underlying physical model of realistic wave propagation, its numerical discretization and link such forward modeling to updating Earth models by means of inverse modeling. The associated computational burden to solve high-resolution statistical inverse problems with precise numerical techniques is however entirely out of reach for decades to come. Consequently, seismologists need to take approximations in resolution, physics, data and/or inverse methodology. I will scan a number of such end-member approximations, and focus on our own approach to simultaneously treat wave physics realistically across the frequency band while maximizing data usage and allow for uncertainty quantification. This approach is motivated by decisive approximations on the model space for typical Earth structures and linearized inverse theory.

Ice sheets are among the key controls on global climate and sea-level change. A detailed understanding of ice sheet dynamics is crucial so to make accurate predictions of their mass balance into the future. Ice streams are the dominant negative component in this balance, accounting for up to 90$\%$ of the Antarctic ice flux into ice shelves and ultimately into the sea. Despite their importance, our understanding of ice-stream dynamics is far from complete.

A range of observations associate ice streams with meltwater. Meltwater lubricates the ice at its bed, allowing it to slide with less internal deformation. It is believed that ice streams may appear due to a localization feedback between ice flow, basal melting and water pressure in the underlying sediments. I will present a model of subglacial water flow below ice sheets, and particularly below ice streams. This hydrologic model is coupled to a model for ice flow. I show that under some conditions this coupled system gives rise to ice streams by instability of the internal dynamics.

The classical separate treatments of competition and predation, and an inability to provide a sensible theoretical basis for mutualism, attests to the inability of traditional models to provide a synthesising framework to study trophic interactions, a fundamental component of ecology. Recent approaches to food web modelling have focused on consumer-resource interactions. We develop this approach to explicitly represent finite resources for each population and construct a rigorous unifying theoretical framework with Lotka-Volterra Conservative Normal (LVCN) systems. We show that mixotrophy, a ubiquitous trophic interaction in marine plankton, provides the key to developing a synthesis of the various ways of making a living. The LVCN framework also facilitates an explicit redefinition of facultative mutualism, illuminating the over-simplification of the traditional definition.

We demonstrate a continuum between trophic interactions and show that populations can continuously and smoothly evolve through most population interactions without losing stable coexistence. This provides a theoretical basis consistent with the evolution of trophic interactions from autotrophy through mixotrophy/mutualism to heterotrophy.

Numerical models provide valuable tools for integrating understanding of riverine processes and morphology. Moreover, they have considerable potential for use in investigating river responses to environmental change and catchment management, and for aiding the interpretation of alluvial deposits and landforms. For this potential to be realised fully, such models must be capable of representing diverse river styles, and the spatial and temporal transitions between styles that can be driven by environmental forcing. However, while numerical modelling of rivers has advanced significantly over the past few decades, this has been accomplished largely by developing separate approaches to modelling different styles of river (e.g., meanders and braided networks). In addition, there has been considerable debate about what should constitute the ‘basic ingredients’ of river models, and the degree to which the environmental processes governing river evolution can be simplified in such models. This seminar aims to examine these unresolved issues, with particular reference to the simulation of large rivers and their floodplains.

Microbial biofilms grow on most rock and stone surfaces and may play critical roles in weathering. With climate change and improving air quality in many cities in Europe biofilms are growing rapidly on many historic stone buildings and posing practical problems for heritage conservation. With many new field and lab techniques available it is now possible to identify the microbes present and start to clarify their roles. We now need help modelling microbial biofilm growth and impacts in order to provide better advice for conservators.

Hazardous geophysical mass flows, such as snow avalanches, debris-flows and pyroclastic flows, often spontaneously develop large particle rich levees that channelize the flow and enhance their run-out. Measurements of the surface velocity near an advancing flow front have been made at the United States Geological Survey (USGS) debris-flow flume, where 10m^3 of water saturated sand and gravel are allowed to flow down an 80m chute onto a run-out pad. In the run-out phase the flow front is approximately invariant in shape and advances at almost constant speed. By tracking the motion of surface tracers and using a simple kinematic model, it was possible to infer bulk motion as incoming material is sheared towards the front, over-run and shouldered to the side. At the heart of the levee formation process is a subtle segregation-mobility feedback effect. Simple models for particle segregation and the depth-averaged motion of granular avalanches are described and one of the first attempts is made to couple these two types of models together. This process proves to be non-trivial, yielding considerable complexity as well as pathologies that require additional physics to be included.

Jakobshavn Isbrae and many other fast flowing outlet glaciers of present

and past ice sheets lie in deep troughs which often have several

overdeepened sections. To make their fast flow possible their bed needs

to be slippery which in turn means high basal water pressures. I will

present a model of subglacial water flow and its application to

Jakobshavn. I find that, somewhat surprisingly, the reason for

Jakobshavn's fast flow might be the pressure dependence of the melting

point of ice. The model itself describes the unusual fluid dynamics occurring underneath the ice; it has an interesting mathematical structure that presents computational challenges.