Past

What should you expect in intercollegiate classes?  What can you do to get the most out of them?  In this session, experienced class tutors will share their thoughts, and a current student will offer tips and advice based on their experience.  

All undergraduate and masters students welcome, especially Part B and MSc students attending intercollegiate classes. (Students who attended the Part C/OMMS induction event will find significant overlap between the advice offered there and this session!)

In this talk I shall describe recent work inspired by problems in cell biology, namely how the dynamics of small G-proteins underlies polarity formation. Their dynamics is such that their active membrane bound form diffuses more slowly. Hence you might expect Turing patterns. Yet how do cells form backs and fronts or single isolated patches. In understanding these questions we shall show that the key is to identify the parameter region where Turing bifurcations are sub-critical. What emerges is a unified 2-parameter bifurcation diagram containing pinned fronts, localised spots, localised patterns. This diagram appears in many canonical models such as Schnakenberg and Brusselator, as well as biologically more realistic systems. A link is also found between theories of semi-string interaction asymptotics and so-called homoclinic snaking. I will close with some remarks about relevance to root hair formation and to the importance of subcriticality in biology. 

Machine learning for scientific applications faces the challenge of limited data. To reduce overfitting, we propose a framework to leverage as much as possible a priori-known physics for a problem. Our approach embeds a deep neural network in a partial differential equation (PDE) system, where the pre-specified terms in the PDE capture the known physics and the neural network will learn to describe the unknown physics. The neural network is estimated from experimental and/or high-fidelity numerical datasets. We call this approach a “deep learning PDE model” (DPM). Once trained, the DPM can be used to make out-of-sample predictions for new physical coefficients, geometries, and boundary conditions. We implement our approach on a classic problem of the Navier-Stokes equation for turbulent flows. The numerical solution of the Navier-Stokes equation (with turbulence) is computationally expensive and requires a supercomputer. We show that our approach can estimate a (computationally fast) DPM for the filtered velocity of the Navier-Stokes equations. 

I will discuss work in progress with Sary Drappeau and Maksym Radziwill on low-lying zeros of Dirichlet L-functions. By way of motivation I will discuss some results on the spacings of zeros of the Riemann zeta function, and the conjectures of Katz and Sarnak relating the distribution of low-lying zeros of L-functions to eigenvalues of random matrices. I will then describe some ideas behind the proof of our theorem.
 

Springer theory is an important branch of geometric representation theory. It is a beautiful interplay between combinatorics, geometry and representation theory.
It started with Springer correspondence, which yields geometric construction of irreducible representations of symmetric groups, and Ginzburg's construction of universal enveloping algebra U(sl_n).

Here I will present a view of two-row Springer theory of type A (thus looking at nilpotent elements with two Jordan blocks) from a scope of a symplectic topologist (hence the title), that yields connections between symplectic-topological invariants and link invariants (Floer homology and Khovanov homology) and connections to representation theory (Fukaya category and parabolic category O), thus summarising results by Abouzaid,
Seidel, Smith and Mak on the subject.

There is a very simple algorithm for the inference of posteriors for probability models on trees. This algorithm, known as "Belief Propagation" is widely used in coding theory, in machine learning, in evolutionary inference, among many other areas. The talk will be devoted to the analysis of Belief Propagation in some of the simplest probability models. We will highlight the interplay between Belief Propagation, linear estimators (statistics), the Kesten-Stigum bound (probability) and Replica Symmetry Breaking (statistical physics). We will show how the analysis of Belief Propagation allowed proof phase transitions for phylogenetic reconstruction in evolutionary biology and developed optimal algorithms for inference of block models. Finally, we will discuss the computational complexity of this 'simple' algorithm.

During this seminar, we will present a new mathematical model describing the transport of nitric oxide (NO) in a realistic geometrical representation of the lungs. Nitric oxide (NO) is naturally produced in the bronchial region of the lungs. It is a physiological molecule that has antimicrobial properties and allows the relaxation of muscles. It is well known that the measurement of the molar fraction of NO in the exhaled air, the so-called FeNO, allows a monitoring of asthmatic patients, since the production of this molecule in the lungs is increased in case of inflammation. However, recent clinical studies have shown that the amount of NO in the exhaled air can also be affected by « non-inflammatory » processes, such as the action of a bronchodilator or a respiratory physiotherapy session for a patient with cystic fibrosis. Using our new model, we will highlight the complex interplay between different transport phenomena in the lungs. More specifically, we will show why changes taking place in the deepest part of the lungs are expected to impact the FeNO. This gives a new light on the clinical studies mentioned below, allowing to confer a new role to the NO for the management of various pulmonary pathologies.

Deep learning has revolutionized image, text, and speech recognition. Motivated by this success, there is growing interest in developing deep learning methods for financial applications. We will present some of our recent results in this area, including deep learning models of high-frequency data. In the second part of the talk, we prove a law of large numbers for single-layer neural networks trained with stochastic gradient descent. We show that, depending upon the normalization of the parameters, the law of large numbers either satisfies a deterministic partial differential equation or a random ordinary differential equation. Using similar analysis, a law of large numbers can also be established for reinforcement learning (e.g., Q-learning) with neural networks. The limit equations in each of these cases are discussed (e.g., whether a unique stationary point and global convergence can be proven).  

A fundamental problem in the context of Einstein's equations of general relativity is to understand precisely the dynamical evolution of small perturbations of stationary black hole solutions. It is expected that there is a discrete set of characteristic frequencies that play a dominant role at late time intervals and carry information about the nature of the black hole, much like the normal frequencies of a vibrating string. These frequencies are called quasi-normal frequencies or resonances and they are closely related to scattering resonances in the study of Schrödinger-type equations. I will discuss a new method of defining and studying resonances for linear wave equations on asymptotically flat black holes, developed from joint work with Claude Warnick.

Every Cayley graph of a finitely generated group has some basic properties: they are locally finite, connected, and vertex-transitive. These are not sufficient conditions, there are some well known examples of graphs that have all these properties but are non-Cayley. These examples do however "look like" Cayley graphs, which leads to the natural question of if there exist any vertex-transitive graphs that are completely unlike any Cayley graph. I plan to give some of the history of this question, as well as the construction of the example that finally answered it.

The triangular inequality is central in Mathematics. What would happen if we reverse it? We only obtain trivial spaces. However, if we mix it with an order structure, we obtain interesting spaces. We'll present linear antimetrics, prove a "masking theorem", and then look at a corollary which tells us about the "twin paradox" in special relativity; time is antimetric!

In this talk I will give an overview of Seba's billiard as a popular model in the field of Quantum Chaos. Consider a rectangular billiard with a Dirac mass placed in its interior. Whereas this mass has essentially no effect on the classical dynamics, it does have an effect on the quantum dynamics, because quantum wave packets experience diffraction at the point obstacle. Numerical investigations of this model by Petr Seba suggested that the spectrum and the eigenfunctions of the Seba billiard resemble the spectra and eigenfunctions of billiards which are classically chaotic.

I will give an introduction to this model and discuss recent results on quantum ergodicity, superscars and the validity of Berry's random wave conjecture. This talk is based on joint work with Par Kurlberg and Zeev Rudnick.

Given a smooth variety X with a normal crossings divisor D (or more generally a smooth log variety) we consider the ring of logarithmic differential operators: the subring of differential operators on X generated by vector fields tangent to D. Modules over this ring are called logarithmic D-modules and generalize the classical theory of regular meromorphic connections. They arise naturally when considering compactifications.

We will discuss which parts of the theory of D-modules generalize to the logarithmic setting and how to overcome new challenges arising from the logarithmic structure. In particular, we will define holonomicity for log D-modules and state a conjectural extension of the famous Riemann-Hilbert correspondence. This talk will be very example-focused and will not require any previous knowledge of D-modules or logarithmic geometry. This is joint work with Mattia Talpo.
 

Partial differential equations governing unknown or evolving geometries are ubiquitous in applications and challenging to discretize. A great deal of numerical work in this area has focused on extrinsic geometric flows, where the evolving geometry is a curve or surface embedded in Euclidean space. Much less attention has been paid to the discretization of intrinsic geometric flows, where the evolving geometry is described by a Riemannian metric. This talk will present finite element discretizations of such flows.
 

Combinatorial anabelian geometry is a modern branch of anabelian geometry which deals with those aspects of anabelian geometry which manifest themselves over algebraically closed fields of characteristic zero. The origin of combinatorial anabelian geometry is in S. Mochizuki’s pioneering papers from 2007, in which he reinterpreted and generalised some key components of his earlier famous proof of the Grothendieck conjecture. S. Mochizuki  discovered that one can separate arguments which work over algebraically closed fields from arithmetic arguments, and study the former by using combinatorial methods. This led to a very nontrivial development of the theory of combinatorial anabelian geometry by S. Mochizuki and Y. Hoshi and other mathematicians. In this talk, after introducing the theory of combinatorial anabelian geometry I will discuss  applications of combinatorial anabelian geometry to the study of the absolute Galois group of number fields and of p-adic local fields and to the study of the Grothendieck-Teichmueller group. In particular, I will talk about the recent construction of a splitting of the natural inclusion of the absolute Galois group of p-adic numbers to the (largest) p-adic Grothendieck–Teichmueller group and a splitting of the natural embedding of the absolute Galois group of rationals into the commensurator of the absolute Galois group of the maximal abelian extension of rationals in the Grothendieck–Teichmueller group.
 

Decision problems – those in which the goal is to return an answer of “YES" or “NO" – are at the heart of the theory of computational complexity, and remain the most studied problems in the theoretical algorithms community. However, in many real-world applications it is not enough just to decide whether the problem under consideration admits a solution: we often want to find all solutions, or at least count (either exactly or approximately) their  total number. It is clear that finding or counting all solutions is at least as computationally difficult as deciding whether there exists a single solution, and  indeed in many cases it is strictly harder (assuming P is not equal NP) even to count approximately the number of solutions than it is to decide whether there exists at least one.

In this talk I will discuss a restricted family of problems, in which we are interested in solutions of a given size: for example, solutions could be copies of a specific k-vertex graph H in a large host graph G, or more generally k-vertex subgraphs of G that have some specified property (e.g. k-vertex subgraphs that are connected). In this setting, although exact counting is strictly harder than decision (assuming standard assumptions in parameterised complexity), the methods typically used to separate approximate counting from decision break down. Indeed, I will demonstrate a method that, subject to certain additional assumptions, allows us to transform an efficient decision algorithm for a problem of this form into an approximate counting algorithm with essentially the same running time.

This is joint work with John Lapinskas (Bristol) and Holger Dell (ITU Copenhagen).

The two courses I took from Wilkinson as a graduate student at Stanford influenced me greatly.  Along with some reminiscences of those days, this talk will touch upon backward error analysis, Gaussian elimination, and Evariste Galois.  It was originally presented at the Wilkinson 100th Birthday conference in Manchester earlier this year.

Many soft materials, such as elastomers and hydrogels, are made of long chain molecules crosslinked to form a three-dimensional network. Their mechanical properties depend on network parameters such as chain density, chain length distribution and the functionality of the crosslinks. Understanding the relationships between the topology of polymer networks and their mechanical properties has been a long-standing challenge in polymer physics.

In this work, we focus on so-called “near-ideal” networks, which are produced by the cross-coupling of star-like macromolecules with well-defined chain length. We developed a computational approach based on random discrete networks, according to which the polymer network is represented by an assembly of non-linear springs connected at junction points representing crosslinks. The positions of the crosslink points are determined from the conditions of mechanical equilibrium. Scaling relations for the elastic modulus and maximum extensibility of the network were obtained. Our scaling relations contradict some predictions of classical estimates of rubber elasticity and have implications for the interpretation of experimental data for near-ideal polymer networks.

Reference: G. Alame, L. Brassart. Relative contributions of chain density and topology to the elasticity of two-dimensional polymer networks. Soft Matter 15, 5703 (2019).

Magnetic skyrmions are topological solitons which occur in a large class
of ferromagnetic materials and which are currently attracting much
attention in the condensed matter community because of  their possible
use  in future magnetic information storage technology.  The talk is
about an integrable model for magnetic skyrmions, introduced in a recent
paper (arxiv 1812.07268) and generalised in (arxiv 1905.06285). The
model can be solved by interpreting it as a gauged nonlinear sigma
model. In the talk will explain the model and the geometry behind its
integrability, and discuss some of the solutions and their physical
interpretation.

In 1941, Chabauty gave a way to compute the set of rational points on specific curves. In 2004, Minhyong Kim showed how to extend Chabauty's method to a bigger class of curves using anabelian methods. In the talk, I will explain Chabauty's method and give an outline of how Kim extended those methods.

Description:In his seminal work from the 1950s, William Feller classified all one-dimensional diffusions in terms of their ability to access the boundary (Feller's test for explosions) and to enter the interior from the boundary. Feller's technique is restricted to diffusion processes as the corresponding differential generators allow explicit computations and the use of Hille-Yosida theory. In the present article we study exit and entrance from infinity for jump diffusions driven by a stable process.Many results have been proved for jump diffusions, employing a variety of techniques developed after Feller's work but exit and entrance from infinite boundaries has long remained open. We show that the these processes have features not observes in the diffusion setting. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions on σ so that (i) non-exploding solutions exist and (ii) the corresponding transition semigroup extends to an entrance point at `infinity'. Our proofs are based on very recent developments for path transformations of stable processes via the Lamperti-Kiu representation and new Wiener-Hopf factorisations for Lévy processes that lie therein. The arguments draw together original and intricate applications of results using the Riesz-Bogdan--Żak transformation, entrance laws for self-similar Markov processes, perpetual integrals of Lévy processes and fluctuation theory, which have not been used before in the SDE setting, thereby allowing us to employ classical theory such as Hunt-Nagasawa duality and Getoor's characterisation of transience and recurrence.

I will give a brief survey of some problems in curvature free geometry and sketch

a new proof of the following:

Theorem (Guth). There is some $\delta (n)>0$ such that if $(M^n,g)$ is a closed aspherical Riemannian manifold and $V(R)$ is the volume of the largest ball of radius $R$ in the universal cover of $M$, then $V(R)\geq \delta(n)R^n$ for all $R$.

I will also discuss some recent related questions and results.

Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (BSDEs) have been successfully applied  to represent the value of optimal control problems for controlled

stochastic differential equations. Since in the classical framework several restrictions on the scope of applicability of this method remained, in recent times several approaches have been devised to obtain the desired probabilistic representation in more general situations. We will review the so called  randomization method, originally introduced by B. Bouchard in the framework of optimal switching problems, which consists in introducing an auxiliary,`randomized'' problem with the same value as the original one, where the control process is replaced by an exogenous random point process,and optimization is performed over a family of equivalent probability measures. The value of the randomized problem is then represented

by means of a special class of BSDEs with a constraint on one of the unknown processes.This methodology will be applied in the framework of controlled evolution equations (with immediate applications to controlled SPDEs), a case for which very few results are known so far.

The Weak Gravity Conjecture holds that in any consistent theory of quantum gravity, gravity must be the weakest force. This simple proposition has surprisingly nontrivial physical consequences, which in the case of supersymmetric string/M-theory compactifications lead to nontrivial geometric consequences for Calabi-Yau manifolds. In this talk we will describe these conjectured geometric consequences in detail and show how they are realized in concrete examples, deriving new results about 5d supersymmetric black holes in the process.

The classical Universal Approximation Theorem certifies that the universal approximation property holds for the class of neural networks of arbitrary width. Here we consider the natural `dual' theorem for width-bounded networks of arbitrary depth, for a broad class of activation functions. In particular we show that such a result holds for polynomial activation functions, making this genuinely different to the classical case. We will then discuss some natural extensions of this result, e.g. for nowhere differentiable activation functions, or for noncompact domains.
 

Tensors are higher dimensional analogues of matrices; they are used to record data with multiple changing variables. Interpreting tensor data requires finding low rank structure, and the structure depends on the application or context. Often tensors of interest define semi-algebraic sets, given by polynomial equations and inequalities. I'll give a characterization of the set of tensors of real rank two, and answer questions about statistical models using probability tensors and semi-algebraic statistics. I will also describe work on learning a path from its three-dimensional signature tensor. This talk is based on joint work with Guido Montúfar, Max Pfeffer, and Bernd Sturmfels.

We study nearly singular PDEs that arise in the solution of linear elasticity and incompressible flow. We will demonstrate, that due to the nearly singular nature, standard methods for the solution of the linear systems arising in a finite element discretisation for these problems fail. We motivate two key ingredients required for a robust multigrid scheme for these equations and construct robust relaxation and prolongation operators for a particular choice of discretisation.
 

Numerous researchers recently applied empirical spectral analysis to the study of modern deep learning classifiers. We identify and discuss an important formal class/cross-class structure and show how it lies at the origin of the many visually striking features observed in deepnet spectra, some of which were reported in recent articles and others unveiled here for the first time. These include spectral outliers and small but distinct bumps often seen beyond the edge of a "main bulk". The structure we identify organizes the coordinates of deepnet features and back-propagated errors, indexing them as an NxC or NxCxC array. Such arrays can be indexed by a two-tuple (i,c) or a three-tuple (i,c,c'), where i runs across the indices of the train set; c runs across the class indices and c' runs across the cross-class indices. This indexing naturally induces C class means, each obtained by averaging over the indices i and c' for a fixed class c. The same indexing also naturally defines C^2 cross-class means, each obtained by averaging over the index i for a fixed class c and a cross-class c'. We develop a formal process of spectral attribution, which is used to show the outliers are attributable to the C class means; the small bump next to the "main bulk" is attributable to between-cross-class covariance; and the "main bulk" is attributable to within-cross-class covariance. Formal theoretical results validate our attribution methodology.
We show how the effects of the class/cross-class structure permeate not only the spectra of deepnet features and backpropagated errors, but also the gradients, Fisher Information matrix and Hessian, whether these are considered in the context of an individual layer or the concatenation of them all. The Kronecker or Khatri-Rao product of the class means in the features and the class/cross-class means in the backpropagated errors approximates the class/cross-class means in the gradients. These means of gradients then create C and C^2 outliers in the spectrum of the Fisher Information matrix, which is the second moment of these gradients. The outliers in the Fisher Information matrix spectrum then create outliers in the Hessian spectrum. We explain the significance of this insight by proposing a correction to KFAC, a well known second-order optimization algorithm for training deepnets.

The relationship between the large-scale geometry of a group and its algebraic structure can be studied via three notions: a group's quasi-isometry class, a group's abstract commensurability class, and geometric actions on proper geodesic metric spaces. A common model geometry for groups G and G' is a proper geodesic metric space on which G and G' act geometrically. A group G is action rigid if every group G' that has a common model geometry with G is abstractly commensurable to G. For example, a closed hyperbolic n-manifold group is not action rigid for all n at least three. In contrast, we show that free products of closed hyperbolic manifold groups are action rigid. Consequently, we obtain the first examples of Gromov hyperbolic groups that are quasi-isometric but do not virtually have a common model geometry. This is joint work with Daniel Woodhouse.

In 1985, McDowell introduced a family of parabolically induced Whittaker modules over a complex semisimple Lie algebra, which includes both Verma modules and the nondegenerate Whittaker modules studied by Kostant. Many classical results for Verma modules and the Bernstein--Gelfand--Gelfand category O have been generalized to the category of Whittaker modules introduced by Milicic--Soergel, including the classification of irreducible objects and the Kazhdan--Lusztig conjectures. Contravariant forms on Verma modules are unique up to scaling and play a key role in the definition of the Jantzen filtration. In this talk I will discuss a classification of contravariant forms on parabolically induced Whittaker modules. In a recent result, joint with Anna Romanov, we show that the dimension of the space of contravariant forms on a parabolically induced Whittaker module is given by the cardinality of a Weyl group. This result illustrates a divergence from classical results for Verma modules, and gives insight to two significant open problems in the theory of Whittaker modules: the Jantzen conjecture and the absence of an algebraic definition of duality.

In an increasingly urbanized world, where cities are changing continuously, it is essential for policy makers to have access to regularly updated decision-making tools for an effective management of urban areas. An example of these tools is the delineation of cities into functional areas which provides knowledge on high spatial interaction zones and their socioeconomic composition. In this paper, we presented a method for the structural analysis of a city, specifically for the determination of its functional areas, based on communities detection in graphs. The nodes of the graph correspond to geographical units resulting from a cartographic division of the city according to the road network. The edges are weighted using a Gaussian distance-decay function and the amount of spatial interactions between nodes. Our approach optimize the modularity to ensure that the functional areas detected have strong interactions within their borders but lower interactions outside. Moreover, it leverages on POIs' entropy to maintain a good socioeconomic heterogeneity in the detected areas. We conducted experiments using taxi trips and POIs datasets from the city of Porto, as a study case. Trough those experiments, we demonstrate the ability of our method to portray functional areas while including spatial and socioeconomic dynamics.
 

Here is the scientific program.

Keynote speakers:

Roger Kamm, Cecil and Ida Green Distinguished Professor of Biological and Mechanical Engineering, MIT

Alicia El Haj,  Interdisciplinary Chair of Cell Engineering, Healthcare Technology Institute, University of Birmingham

Invited speakers (confirmed to date):

Davide Ambrosi, Politecnico di Torino, Italy

Anthony Callanan, University of Edinburgh, UK

Ruth Cameron, University of Cambridge, UK

Sonia Contera, University of Oxford, UK

Linda Cummings, New Jersey Institute of Technology, USA

Mohit Dalwadi, University of Oxford, UK

John Dunlop, University of Salzburg, Austria

John King, Nottingham, UK

Nati Korin, Technion, Israel

Catriona Lally, Trinity College Dublin, Ireland

Sandra Loerakker, TU Eindhoven, Netherlands

Ivan Martin, University of Basel, Switzerland

Scott McCue, Queensland University of Technology, Australia

Pierre-Alexis Mouthuy, University of Oxford, UK

Tom Mullin,  University of Oxford, UK

Ramin Nasehi, Politecnico di Milano, Italy

Reuben O'Dea, University of Nottingham, UK

James Oliver, University of Oxford, UK

Ioannis Papantoniou, KU Leuven, Belgium

Ansgar Petersen, Julius Wolf Institute Berlin, Germany

Luigi Preziosi, Politecnico di Torino, Italy

Rebecca Shipley, University College London, UK

Barbara Wagner, Weierstrass Institute for Applied Analysis and Stochastics, Berlin

Cathy Ye, Oxford University, UK

Feihu Zhao, TU Eindhoven, Netherlands

This meeting is being held in celebration of Prof Philip Maini's 60th birthday. Prof Maini has been an internationally leading researcher in mathematical biology for decades. He is currently the Director of the Wolfson Centre for Mathematical Biology, a position he has held since 1998. In the past 20 years he has grown the group significantly. He has established countless interdisciplinary collaborations, has over 400 publications in numerous areas of mathematical biology, with major contributions in mathematical modelling of tumours, wound healing and embryonic pattern formation. He has been elected Fellow of the Royal Society (FRS), Fellow of the Academy of Medical Sciences (FMedSci), and Foreign Fellow of the Indian National Science Academy (FNA). He has served or is serving on editorial board of a large number of journals, and was Editor-in-Chief of the Bulletin of Mathematical Biology [2002-15]. And yet his service to the community cannot be captured just by numbers and titles. Anyone who has met him and worked with him cannot but notice and be touched by his unfailing generosity and the many sacrifices he has made and continues to make day in and day out to help students, early career researchers, and fellow faculty alike.

This meeting provides an opportunity to celebrate Prof Maini's many accomplishments; to thank him for all of his sacrifices; and to bring together the large number of researchers – mathematicians, biologists, physiologists, and clinicians – that he has worked with and interacted with over the years. More broadly, the meeting provides a unique opportunity to reflect on mathematical biology, to provide perspectives on the trajectory of a field that was scarcely recognised and had very few dedicated researchers in the days of Prof Maini's own DPhil; yet a field that has grown tremendously since then. Much of this growth is attributable to the work of Prof Maini, so that today the value of mathematics in biology is increasingly recognized by biologists and clinicians, and with theoretical predictions of mathematical models having cemented a role in advancing biological understanding. 

Speakers

David Sumpter, Uppsala University (Public lecture), Derek Moulton, University of Oxford, Hans Othmer, Minnesota University, Jen Flegg, University of Melbourne, Jim Murray, University of Washington, Jonathan Sherratt, Heriot-Watt University, Kevin Painter, Heriot-Watt University, Linus Schumacher, University of Edinburgh, Lucy Hutchinson, Roche, Mark Chaplain, University of St Andrews, Mark Lewis, University of Alberta, Mary Myerscough, University of Sydney, Natasha Martin, University of Bristol, Noemi Picco, Swansea University, Paul Kulesa, Stowers Institute for Medical Research, Ruth Baker, University of Oxford, Santiago Schnell, University of Michigan, Tim Pedley, University of Cambridge

Organising committee

Ruth Baker (University of Oxford)

Derek Moulton (University of Oxford)

Helen Byrne (University of Oxford)

Santiago Schnell (University of Michigan)

Mark Chaplain (University of St Andrews)

The analysis and characterization of human mobility using population-level mobility models is important for numerous applications, ranging from the estimation of commuter flows to modeling trade flows. However, almost all of these applications have focused on large spatial scales, typically from intra-city level to inter-country level. In this paper, we investigate population-level human mobility models on a much smaller spatial scale by using them to estimate customer mobility flow between supermarket zones. We use anonymized mobility data of customers in supermarkets to calibrate our models and apply variants of the gravity and intervening-opportunities models to fit this mobility flow and estimate the flow on unseen data. We find that a doubly-constrained gravity model can successfully estimate 65-70% of the flow inside supermarkets. We then investigate how to reduce congestion in supermarkets by combining mobility models with queueing networks. We use a simulated-annealing algorithm to find store layouts with lower congestion than the original layout. Our research gives insight both into how customers move in supermarkets and into how retailers can arrange stores to reduce congestion. It also provides a case study of human mobility on small spatial scales.

Please register at:

https://sites.google.com/view/geometryandstrings2019/home

 It has been long known that intersection theory on the moduli space of punctured Riemann surfaces encodes observables in two-dimensional quantum gravity. It is natural to ask whether interacting theories could also admit a similar description. In the genus-zero case we put forward a twisted version of intersection theory on the moduli space and propose that it computes tree-level scattering amplitudes in a range of quantum field theories with a finite spectrum of particles. The resulting intersection numbers exhibit two alternative kinds of localization formulae. The first one receives contributions only from boundaries of the moduli space, thus leading to a Feynman diagram expansion, while the second one localizes on critical points of a certain Morse function.

We investigate a nonlinear version of coevolving voter models, in which both node states and network structure update as a coupled stochastic dynamical process. Most prior work on coevolving voter models has focused on linear update rules with fixed rewiring and adopting probabilities. By contrast, in our nonlinear version, the probability that a node rewires or adopts is a function of how well it "fits in" within its neighborhood. To explore this idea, we incorporate a parameter σ that represents the fraction of neighbors of an updating node that share its opinion state. In an update, with probability σq (for some nonlinearity parameter q), the updating node rewires; with complementary probability 1−σq, the updating node adopts a new opinion state. We study this mechanism using three rewiring schemes: after an updating node deletes a discordant edge, it then either (1) "rewires-to-random" by choosing a new neighbor in a random process; (2) "rewires-to-same" by choosing a new neighbor in a random process from nodes that share its state; or (3) "rewires-to-none" by not rewiring at all (akin to "unfriending" on social media). We compare our nonlinear coevolving model to several existing linear models, and we find in our model that initial network topology can play a larger role in the dynamics, whereas the choice of rewiring mechanism plays a smaller role. A particularly interesting feature of our model is that, under certain conditions, the opinion state that is initially held by a minority of nodes can effectively spread to almost every node in a network if the minority nodes views themselves as the majority. In light of this observation, we relate our results to recent work on the majority illusion in social networks.

Reference: 

Kureh, Yacoub H., and Mason A. Porter. "Fitting In and Breaking Up: A Nonlinear Version of Coevolving Voter Models." arXiv preprint arXiv:1907.11608 (2019).

In the speaker's previous joint work with Hans-Joachim Hein, a mass formula for asymptotically locally Euclidean (ALE) Kaehler manifolds was proved, assuming only relatively weak fall-off conditions on the metric. However, the case of real dimension four presented technical difficulties that led us to require fall-off conditions in this special dimension that are stronger than the Chrusciel fall-off conditions that sufficed in higher dimensions. This talk will explain how a new proof of the 4-dimensional case, using ideas from symplectic geometry, shows that Chrusciel fall-off suffices to imply all our main results in any dimension. In particular, I will explain why our Penrose-type inequality for the mass of an asymptotically Euclidean Kaehler manifold always still holds, given only this very weak metric fall-off hypothesis.
 

The vulnerability of a host population to a specific disease measures how likely pathogen introduction will lead to an epidemic outbreak, and how hard it is to contain or eliminate an ongoing one. Predicting vulnerability is thus key to designing risk-reduction strategies that limit disease burden on public health and economic development. To do that, highly-resolved data tracking contacts and mobility of the host population need to integrate into detailed models of disease dynamics. This represents a twofold challenge. Firstly, we need theoretical frameworks that turn data feeds into predictors of epidemic risk, and can identify which of the structural features of the host population drive its vulnerability. Secondly, we need new ways to access, analyze, and share the relevant contact and mobility data: a necessary step to make our predictions realistic and reliable. In my talk, I will address both issues. I will show how to analytically derive the conditions that discriminate between epidemic regime and quick pathogen extinction, by representing empirically measured contacts as time-evolving complex networks. The analytical core of this theory leads to a broad range of applications. At the same time, its data-driven nature prompts context-specific predictions that can inform policymaking, as I will show in two case studies: reorganizing nurse scheduling to reduce the risk of spread of healthcare-associated infections; linking the features of livestock trade movements to the spatial spread of cattle diseases. The latter application is also an example of how limited access and incomplete data collection represent a big hurdle to predictive vulnerability analysis. To overcome this, I will present a collaborative platform for analyzing and comparing trade networks coming from several European countries. Using a bring code to the data approach, our platform surmounts the strict regulations preventing data sharing, and builds an algorithm that predicts vulnerability even in situations when limited data on cattle trade are available. The ultimate goal of all these theoretical and numerical developments is to inform strategies that reduce the vulnerability of the host population by restructuring its contacts. However, such restructuring may entail a feedback effect, acting as selective pressure on the pathogen itself. In the last part of my talk, I will extend the developed formalism to modeling evolutionary pathways that maximize the invasion potential of the pathogen, given the observed host population structure. Specifically, I will link the emergence of exotic replication behaviors in plant-infecting viruses to historical changes in plant distribution patterns.

We study the stability properties of the Eulerian mean flow generated by monochromatic surface-gravity waves propagating in a rotating frame. The wave averaged equations, also known as the Craik-Leibovich equations, govern the evolution of the mean flow. For propagating waves in a rotating frame these equations admit a steady depth-dependent base flow sometimes called the Ekman-Stokes spiral, because of its resemblance to the standard Ekman spiral. This base flow profile is controlled by two non-dimensional numbers, the Ekman number Ek and the Rossby number Ro. We show that this steady laminar velocity profile is linearly unstable above a critical Rossby number Roc(Ek). We determine the threshold Rossby number as a function of Ek using a numerical eigenvalue solver, before confirming the numerical results through asymptotic expansions in the large/low Ek limit. These were also confirmed by nonlinear simulations of the Craik-Leibovich equations. When the system is well above the linear instability threshold, Ro >> Roc, the resulting flow fluctuates chaotically. We will discuss the possible implications in an oceanographic context, as well as for laboratory experiments.